After a very intense presidential election in the US on Nov. 8, oil prices dropped as Republican candidate Donald J. Trump's win over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton became apparent. The instability of the markets after the election had crude oil prices mostly mimicking international markets.
Along with Dow futures, crude prices crashed during overnight trading after the late-night outcome of the election. After slightly rebounding during the night, however, oil prices managed to drop yet again once trading was under way on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 9.
West Texas Intermediate was down 0.16%, opening trade at $44.91/bbl vs. Brent crude oil, which opened unchanged at $46.09/bbl.
By the end of trading on Nov. 9, oil prices recovered after a shift from traders' initial shock of the election's outcome.
In morning trading on Nov. 10, oil prices then fell slightly after the International Energy Agency announced that the future was stable for growth in international oil demand, conversely showing no signal of vigorous economic growth for 2017. Brent crude prices fell 1% to start day trading at $45.90/bbl, while the US benchmark WTI was down 1.3% at $44.67/bbl from the day before closing prices.
OPEC production
According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries monthly Oil Market Report released on Nov. 11, OPEC members produced 33.64 million b/d of oil in October, which was higher than the proposed production ceiling presented at the cartel's September meeting in Algeria.
This was a combined production output increase of 240,000 b/d above September figures. The proposed production cap of 32.5-33 million b/d was supposed to help balance the market and cut production by 700,000 b/d. This much-anticipated meeting to discuss cutting of production for individual members will be discussed at the end of this month in Vienna.
This announcement from OPEC sent crude prices sliding in opening day-trading on Nov. 11. Dropping 2% at the start of trade, Brent opened at $44/bbl while WTI opened at $43.62/bbl, a decline of 2.3%.
According to Raymond James & Associates Inc., commodities for the energy sector for the week ending Nov. 11 overall finished down. Brent crude ended the week at $44.52/bbl, declining by 2.3%, and WTI weakened by 1.5% to $43.51/bbl.
Unknown volatility
As with the outcome of the election, the uncertainty of what lies ahead with a Trump administration will continue to play a role in the price of crude oil on the international markets based on soon-to-be 45th US president's future energy policy and various international relations.
Trump in the past has declared the need for the US to break its dependency on OPEC's oil and rely more on home-sourced oil and gas production.
"Unwise federal energy policy has kept approximately 87% of US Outer Continental Shelf closed to exploration for over 30 years. With the right policies in place, we can produce vastly more offshore oil and natural gas, not only for US consumers, but for people around the globe as well," Trump said in a statement.
Oliver Jakob, managing director at Swiss oil market research group Petromatrix, made a statement to UPI.com: "Emotions are running high but presidential powers in the United States are not the same as in Russia and there is always some difference between campaign and the reality of governing.
"For oil, we need to keep in mind that even though we are in a heavily supplied market, the spare production capacity at current prices is limited and there are a lot of unknowns about what will be the Trump position in the geopolitics of the Middle East," Jakob said.
Laura Bell-Hammer | Statistics Editor
Laura Bell-Hammer has been the Statistics Editor for the Oil & Gas Journal since 1994. She was the Survey Editor for two years prior to her current position with OGJ. While working with OGJ, she also was a contributing editor for Oil & Gas Financial Journal. Before joining OGJ, she worked for Vintage Petroleum in Tulsa, gaining her oil and gas industry knowledge.