Rystad Energy projects a 6% year-on-year increase in oil demand in 2021, climbing to an average of 95.4 million b/d from 89.6 million b/d in 2020. The estimates show that total oil demand in 2022 will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 million b/d.
April 2021 demand is expected to land at 93 million b/d, climbing to 94 million b/d in May and 95.8 million b/d in June. Further ahead, total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 million b/d before ascending to 98.3 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Total global demand for road fuels will rise by 9% in 2021, Rystad forecast, to 45.1 million b/d, from 41.3 million b/d in 2020. Road fuel demand is forecast to accelerate in 2022 to about 47.5 million b/d.
In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 million b/d globally, rising to 44.9 million b/d in May and 45.9 million b/d in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 million b/d in the third quarter and 46.5 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Among the various fuel sectors, jet fuel has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. Rystad expects jet fuel demand to average 3.9 million b/d in 2021, rising by 21% from 3.2 million b/d last year, but still a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when jet fuel demand is expected to average 5.4 million b/d as air traffic returns to more normal levels.
Jet fuel demand in April is expected to reach 3.4 million b/d, rising to 3.6 million b/d in May and 3.9 million b/d in June. Further ahead, jet fuel demand is expected to average 4.3 million b/d in the third quarter and 4.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Regional demand
Total oil demand in the US is now forecast to average at 19.4 million b/d in 2021, an 8% increase from 18.1 million b/d last year. In 2022, US oil demand is expected to climb to 20 million b/d. Oil demand for the current month of April is forecast at 18.8 million b/d, rising to 19.1 million b/d in May and 19.6 million b/d in June. Further ahead, oil demand is expected to average 19.9 million b/d in the third quarter and 20.2 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
US road fuel demand is forecast to recover to 11.8 million b/d in 2021, a 10% rise from last year’s 10.7 million b/d. In 2022, road fuel demand should increase to about 12.2 million b/d. Road fuel demand in April is forecast at 11.6 million b/d, rising to 11.9 million b/d in May and 12.1 million b/d in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected hold steady at about 12.2 million b/d in both the third quarter and the fourth quarter.
Total oil demand in Europe is now forecast to average 13.4 million b/d in 2021, a 6% increase from 12.7 million b/d last year. In 2022, European oil demand is expected to rise to 14.1 million b/d. The monthly oil demand forecast for both April and May lies at 13.0 million b/d, climbing to 13.5 million b/d in June. Further ahead, oil demand is expected to average 14.0 million b/d in both the third and fourth quarters this year.
European road fuel demand in 2021 is expected to recover to 6.6 million b/d, a 7% rise from last year’s 6.1 million b/d. In 2022, road fuel demand is forecast to rise to 6.7 million b/d. Road fuel demand in April is forecast at 6.5 million b/d, nudging up to 6.6 million b/d in May and 6.9 million b/d in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand in the third quarter is expected to average 7.0 million b/d before dipping to 6.8 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Total oil demand in China is now forecast to average at 14.9 million b/d this year, a 7% increase from 13.9 million b/d last year. In 2022, Chinese oil demand is expected to rise further to 15.8 million b/d. April oil demand is forecast at 14.8 million b/d, climbing to 14.9 million b/d in May and 15.1 million b/d in June. Further ahead, oil demand is expected to average 14.9 million b/d in the third quarter and rise to 15.3 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Chinese road fuel demand in 2021 is projected to recover to 6.2 million b/d, an 11% rise from 5.6 million b/d last year. In 2022, road fuel demand is expected to increase to 7 million b/d. Road fuel demand in both April and May is forecast at 6.1 million b/d, rising to 6.3 million b/d in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected to average 6.3 million b/d in the third quarter and 6.4 million b/d in the fourth quarter.