According to Oil & Gas Journal’s annual assessment, the world’s proved oil reserves total 1.68 trillion bbl at yearend 2019, 0.6% higher than a year earlier. Worldwide proved natural gas reserves are 7.25 quadrillion cf (quads), up from 7.14 quads reported in the previous year’s survey.
OGJ data for oil reserves and production increasingly include natural gas liquids. Some countries’ gas reserves changed to dry gas reserves after adding NGL reserves explicitly into oil reserves.
The published reserves figures rely on survey responses and official updates released by individual countries, which are not provided every year in many cases. OGJ changes its estimate for a country only when it receives evidence that a change is in order. Therefore, in a given reserves summary, a year-to-year change—or lack thereof—may not necessarily reflect a change that applies to the calendar year alone.
When the original oil data are reported in metric tons, OGJ converted the data to volume unit b/d by applying conversion factors suggested by the International Energy Agency for each country.
OGJ expects worldwide oil production in 2019 to average 94.4 million b/d vs. a 2018 average of 93.8 million b/d (+0.6%), with production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries largely offsetting non-OPEC production growth. This compares with a nearly 3% increase seen in 2018.
Reserves changes
According to the 2019 China Mineral Resources Report (CMR), China’s proved remaining oil reserves at yearend 2018 total 3.57 billion tons (26.15 billion bbl), a 0.9% growth from 3.54 billion tons at yearend 2017. China’s remaining reserves for conventional natural gas, coalbed methane, and shale gas increased by 4.9%, 8.9% and 0.7%, respectively, from the previous year’s levels. In total, China’s gas reserves increased by 5% to 222.98 tcf.
According to the latest report from the Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Indonesia’s proven oil reserves as of Jan. 1, 2018 totaled 3.15 billion bbl, down from 3.17 billion bbl a year ago. Its proven gas reserves declined from 100.4 tcf to 96 tcf.
India’s reserves have not been updated by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas of India at the time of this writing. Australia’s reserves estimates were made at yearend 2015, and no updates have been made after that, according to Geoscience Australia.
According to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), at yearend 2018, Norway’s proven oil reserves, which include crude oil, condensate, and NGLs, amounted to 8.22 billion bbl, an increase of 2% compared with the previous year (Norway’s oil reserves at yearend 2017 was revised down by NPD). The increase was due to reserve growth on several producing fields, submission of the Plans for Development and Operation (PDO) for Johan Sverdrup construction phase 2 and Nova field. Norway’s proven gas reserves at yearend 2018 declined to 57 tcf from 61 tcf at yearend 2017.
According to the Geological Survey of the Netherlands, the country’s estimated natural gas reserves as of Jan. 1, 2019 amount to 6.9 tcf, down dramatically from the 24.5 tcf recorded a year earlier. This major reduction compared to Jan. 1, 2018 is due to the write-down of Groningen reserves. The oil reserves as of Jan. 1, 2019 amount to 114.5 million bbl, up from 74.2 million bbl a year ago.
According to the latest estimates from the UK Oil & Gas Authority, UK’s proved oil reserves at yearend 2018 increased by 200 million bbl to 2.7 billion bbl. Proven gas reserves were little changed.
According to the Danish Energy Agency, Denmark’s proved gas reserves increased to 1.043 tcf, compared to 968 bcf in last year’s survey. Proved oil reserves also increased 3% to 441 million bbl.
Canadian conventional crude and condensate reserves are now estimated at 4.36 billion bbl, up 11% from a year ago, according to the latest evaluations by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The latest evaluation of Canadian oil sands reserves remained unchanged at 163.5 billion bbl. Canadian gas reserves moved down again to 71.3 tcf from 72.4 tcf a year ago.
According to Pemex’s hydrocarbon annual evaluations, as of Jan. 1, 2019, Mexico’s estimated proved oil reserves totaled 5.78 billion bbl, down from 6.43 billion bbl as of Jan. 1, 2018. The current oil reserves consisted of 5.33 billion bbl of crude, 62.4 million bbl of condensate, and 390.8 million bbl of NGL. Mexico’s proved dry gas reserves total 6.4 tcf, down from 6.6 tcf a year ago. Associated gas represents 59.9% of the total.
The latest estimates of Brazilian National Petroleum Agency (ANP) show that crude oil reserves in Brazil increased by 3% to 13.24 billion bbl in 2018, while its gas reserves continued to decline to an estimated 13.01 tcf.
According to the Argentinian Institute of Oil & Gas (IAPG), Argentina’s proved crude oil reserves at yearend 2018 totaled 2.39 billion bbl, an increase of 18.4% from a year ago. Its proved gas reserves increased to 13.12 tcf from 12.55 tcf in the previous evaluation.
Colombia’s crude oil reserves were up 9.9% to 1.96 billion bbl at yearend 2018. Gas reserves decreased 2.9% to 3.78 tcf. This according to the country’s energy ministry.
OPEC, Russia reserves
The reserves figures reported for OPEC members are referenced from the organization’s latest annual statistical bulletin.
Total proved crude oil reserves for the current OPEC members are largely flat from a year ago at 1,190 billion bbl and total natural gas reserves moved up slightly by 0.6% to 2,570 tcf.
OPEC’s oil reserves account for 71% of the worldwide total and gas reserves account for 35% of the world’s gas reserves. This compares with a 48% share of world gas reserves when Qatar was still an OPEC member.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil reserves increased slightly to 267 billion bbl from 266.3 billion bbl a year ago. Its gas reserves increased 4% to 320.2 tcf. Iraq’s crude oil reserves declined from 147.2 billion bbl to 145 billion bbl. Nigeria’s proved oil reserves increased from 36.18 billion bbl to 36.97 billion bbl. OGJ also updated Congo’s reserves based the information released by OPEC.
According to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, the volume of reserves proved up to A+B+C1 status in 2018 is 550 million tons of oil and 700 billion cu m (bcm) of gas. In 2017, 550 million tons of oil and 890 bcm of gas were proved up to A+B+C1 status.
The Minister of Energy Alexander Novak says that Russia’s A+B+C1+C2 oil reserves amounted to 29 billion tons, but commercially recoverable reserves given the current fiscal system and oil prices are only 15 billion tons, or 109 billion bbl.
Meantime, many Russian oil and gas companies in recent years have released proven reserves under SEC and PRMS classifications with the help of foreign independent auditing companies. For example, Lukoil has proved oil reserves of 11.57 billion bbl (SEC classification) in Russia territory, compared to 11.4 billion bbl in 2017. Its proven gas reserves in Russia were around 16 tcf for both years. Rosneft reported its whole proven oil reserves to be 31.5 billion bbl (PRMS) for 2018, up from 22 billion bbl in 2017. Gazprom has proved gas reserves of 631.7 tcf in 2018 (PRMS), down from 644.6 tcf in 2017.
US reserves
Proved reserves of crude oil in the US increased by 19.5%, or 6.4 billion bbl, to 39.2 billion bbl at yearend 2017, according to the 2018 reserves report from the US Energy Information Administration. Proved lease condensate reserves increased 16% to 2.8 billion bbl at yearend 2017. Combined, US crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves increased by 6.8 billion bbl, or 19.2%, in 2017.
Texas saw the largest net increase in crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves (3.3 billion bbl) of all states in 2017—an increase of 24% from 2016. In 2017, the largest proved reserves gains were in the Permian basin of West Texas where operators developed the Wolfcamp/Bone Spring shale play within the Delaware basin and the Spraberry Trend Area of the Midland basin.
The second-largest net increase in crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves were in New Mexico (+1.0 billion bbl) in 2017—an increase of 62% from 2016. In eastern New Mexico operators developed the Wolfcamp shale play and the Bone Spring formation.
The US had 464.3 tcf of proved natural gas reserves as of December 31, 2017. US proved reserves of total natural gas (including natural gas plant liquids) increased by 123.2 tcf, or 36.1%.
The estimated volume of natural gas plant liquids contained in proved reserves of total natural gas increased from 14.7 billion bbl in 2016 to 19.2 billion bbl in 2017, a 30% increase.
US dry natural gas proved reserves increased from an estimated 322.2 tcf in 2016 to 438.5 tcf in 2017, an increase of 36%.
EIA is scheduled to release the yearend 2018 estimates of proved reserves in December. As OGJ went to press at the end of November and the figures were not yet available, OGJ made forecasts based on reserves information released by the OGJ150 companies.
OGJ forecasts that, as of yearend 2018, US proved oil reserves, including crude oil, lease condensate, and NGLs reserves, totaled 71 billion bbl, up 16% from the prior year. Dry natural gas reserves increased 6.5% to 467 tcf. OGJ will update US reserves accordingly based EIA’s numbers.
World oil production
The strong worldwide oil production growth seen in 2018 halted in 2019. Oil production is expected to increase by only 0.6% this year, compared to a 2.7% increase in 2018. Oil production volumes are expected to average 94.4 million b/d vs. an estimated 2018 average of 93.8 million b/d.
OGJ forecasts that total OPEC oil production this year—including crude oil, condensate, and NGLs—will average 35.82 million b/d, down from 37.22 million b/d last year, due to OPEC+ supply cuts as well as massive losses in Iran and Venezuela due mostly to sanctions. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production could drop from 10.33 million b/d during 2018 to around 9.8 million b/d in 2019.
Russia’s oil production is expected to average 11.45 million b/d this year, up 0.8% from the year-ago level. According to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, seasonally higher gas production at the end of the year led to higher gas condensate production, which is included in the official crude oil statistics.
In the US, crude oil production is forecast to rise to 12.29 million b/d this year, up from 10.99 million b/d last year. Although overall US crude oil production continues to increase, the growth rate is slowing largely because of a decline in oil-directed rigs. US NGLs production is expected to increase to 4.9 million b/d, a gain of about 500,000 b/d from the year-ago level, thanks to higher gas production. Hence, total US oil supplies are forecast to reach 17.2 million b/d this year, compared to 15.35 million b/d in 2018.
Canadian oil production is expected to increase by 2% this year to 5.3 million b/d, thanks to relaxation of the cuts mandated by the Albertan government, additional pipeline capacity, and increased access to rail cars.
Underpinned by gains from new production units, including those in Buzios and Lula pre-salt fields in the Santos Basin, Brazilian oil production is set to increase by 5.8% to 2.85 million b/d this year. Brazil will also be a major source of global oil growth in 2020.
Norwegian oil output is expected to decline nearly 8% from last year due to field declines and heavy maintenance at Ekofisk. However, with support from Johan Sverdrup field and other projects coming online, Norwegian output in 2020 will post impressive gains, making Norway one of the largest contributors to global oil supply growth.
The fall of oil production in the Asia-Pacific region has been stabilized in 2019, mainly thanks to higher production from China. Oil production in China for 2019 will increase around 2% to 3.85 million b/d, thanks to a significant increase in upstream investment by China’s largest producers. Australia’s production is also expected to increase significantly. On the other hand, production from Malaysia and Indonesia are both declining.