OTC: MMS forecasts increased production from Gulf of Mexico

Guntis Moritis
OGJ Production Editor

HOUSTON, May 5 -- The US Minerals Management Service's 2009-18 forecast, released May 4 at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, shows Gulf of Mexico oil production reaching an average 1.879 million b/d in 2013 compared with the hurricane-affected production of 1.142 million b/d in 2008.

After the 2013 peak, MMS sees oil production decreasing to an average of 1.735 million b/d in 2018.

MMS includes condensate production in its oil production numbers.

In regard to natural gas, the forecast shows production averaging 7.03 bcfd in 2009 compared with 6.43 bcfd in 2008. From a high in 2009, the forecast decreases gas production to 6.22 bcfd in 2012 before starting an increasing trend that results in gas production reaching 8.27 bcfd in 2018.

MMS's forecast depends on the successful development of announced and undiscovered resources in the gulf.
The forecast shows a continued decrease in shallow-water oil production, reaching 82,000 b/d in 2018 compared with 313,000 b/d in 2008. Likewise, shallow-water gas production decreases to 0.9 bcfd in 2018 compared with 3.84 bcfd in 2008.

In 2008, oil and gas operators announced 15 deepwater discoveries in the gulf and seven new projects started production in water deeper than 1,000 ft.

MMS also notes that in 2008, 57% of all gulf leases were in water deeper than 1,000 ft and the gulf had 141 projects producing from deepwater. Additionally, 73% of the tracts receiving bids in the three lease sales held in 2008 were in deepwater areas of the gulf.

Contact Guntis Moritis at [email protected].