KNOWING FIELD SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS CRUCIAL IN ESTIMATING PROFITABILITY

Dan L. Wilson ARCO Oil & Gas Co. Houston Knowing the distributions of field sizes for play types is crucial to predict profitability of plays. An exploration program is commonly built by selecting prospects that meet an arbitrary reserve size criteria without understanding the field size distributions of the plays involved. This method often results in poor financial performance. Oil and gas field size distributions are best approximated by a log-normal distribution (Fig. 1).

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