WATCHING WASHINGTON DRAFTING THE NES

The Department of Energy is discovering that drafting a comprehensive National Energy Strategy is a formidable chore.

DOE's timetable for the NES, envisioned as a roadmap for future energy policymaking, has slipped a bit in the past year, and the really tough decisions now have been reserved for President Bush.

DOE originally planned to release an interim draft this month but replaced it with a benign compilation of public comments.

COMPUTER MODEL DELAYED

Deputy Energy Sec. W. Henson Moore said last week the NES computer model, the foundation for the strategy, will be much delayed. The task outlined was simply too large for the time allocated.

"The data base isn't good enough, and the computer models aren't good enough, big enough, or on time," he said.

As components of the computer model are completed, they will be plugged into the NES. And when the proposed NES is sent to Bush in December it will be based on a computer model and data base system that, although incomplete, is better than the one the Energy Information Administration has now.

Moore said it will take EIA 2-3 years to finish gathering the data base and assimilate it into the computer model, including review by the National Academy of Sciences.

"But what we will have when we are finished, we've never had before. Our goal is to have the best energy computer model anywhere.

"We intend to make it available to private business, to the press, and particularly to public service commissions and legislatures across the country, letting their computers interface with ours and simply draw out whatever data they need."

Moore said DOE probably will not disclose any interim NES decisions. The first version the public sees will be the one Bush approves about a year from now.

There are two schools of thought within DOE on that. Some think DOE should disclose an early NES draft before it goes to the White House, Moore said, "so it has been aired, we know the pros and cons, people don't come off the wall, and we can build a consensus for it."

Other DOE officials argue that might create a firestorm that would force DOE to retreat on some issues.

"We have these two schools of thought about different strategies on how you handle this, and we haven't come down yet on either side of it," Moore said.

Moore thinks all meaningful options should be given the president, and actions impeding that should be avoided.

HOW FAR IS FAR ENOUGH?

Moore said one important question the NES should answer is this: How far can the U.S. go to meet its own crude oil needs.

"We're just beginning to grapple with that in the NES and put some numbers to it, overlaying what breakthroughs we think we're going to make in technology and enhanced oil recovery."

DOE is trying to calculate an oil production baseline, then determine how options such as production tax incentives would affect it.

The goal is to tell the president what U.S. energy production will be and how various options would improve it.