EIA: Stable oil, natural gas production from US Gulf of Mexico expected through 2026
Crude oil and natural gas production from the US Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain stable through next year, with crude oil production forecast to tick up slightly from 2024 levels and natural gas production to dip from last year’s levels.
The forecast, detailed by the US Energy Information Administration based on the May 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, shows oil production in the US Gulf to average 1.80 million b/d in 2025 and 1.81 million b/d in 2026. That compares with 1.77 million b/d in 2024.
EIA forecasts US Gulf natural gas production to average 1.72 bcfd this year and 1.64 bcfd in 2026, compared with 1.79 bcfd last year, EIA noted in a brief analysis June 6.
Hurricanes affecting the area could disrupt production levels and timelines, EIA said, noting a forecast from Colorado State University of 17 named storms in the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season.
That said, should the EIA estimates hold, the US Gulf of Mexico is forecast to contribute about 13% of US crude oil production and 1% of US marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026, EIA said.
EIA said without the expected startup of oil and gas production from 13 fields this year and next, Gulf of Mexico production would decline. Of those expected startups, eight will be developed using subsea tiebacks or underwater extensions to existing floating production units (FPU), EIA said. The other five are expected to produce from four new FPUs, with one—Salamanca—targeting production from two fields.
Together, crude oil production from the expected startups will contribute 85,000 b/d in 2025 and 308,000 b/d in 2026, EIA said, with expected associated natural gas production estimated to average 0.09 bcfd in 2025 and 0.27 bcfd in 2026.
2025 Gulf of Mexico production starts
So far this year, Whale, Ballymore, and Dover fields have come online.
The Shell plc-operated Whale development is producing from the Whale FPU in 8,600 ft of water and is expected to produce around 85,000 b/d of crude oil at its peak. 55259926
Shell also started production at Dover field. The field is a tieback to the Appomattox deepwater production hub. Expected peak production is 15,000 b/d. 55280621
Another tieback to come online this year is the Chevron-operated Ballymore field—a tieback to the Blind Faith semisubmersible platform. It is expected to produce up to 75,000 gross b/d of oil and 50 MMcfd of gas from the Upper Jurassic/Norphlet play. 55284489
Expected online later this year is the Beacon Offshore Energy-operated Shenandoah field, which will produce from an FPU. Production is estimated to begin in June 2025 with an initial capacity of 120,000 b/d, which will be expanded to 140,000 b/d in early 2026, EIA said.
Also expected online this year is the Salamanca FPU, which will process oil and gas from the LLOG Exploration Co.-operated Leon and Castile discoveries. 55259715
Subsea tiebacks yet to come online but expected this year are Katmai West, Sunspear, Argos Southwest Extension, and Zephyrus Phase 1, EIA said.
2026 Gulf of Mexico production starts
In 2025, three new subsea tiebacks—Shell-operated Silvertip Phase 3, Murphy Oil Corp.-operated Longclaw, and Beacon Offshore Energy-operated Monument—are expected online.
