NSF: KUWAIT ENVIRONMENTAL HARM FOUND TO BE NOT AS BAD AS FEARED

The National Science Foundation has confirmed reports that environmental effects from burning Kuwaiti oil well fires are not as bad as originally feared.

Friends of the Earth immediately disputed that conclusion.

An NSF sponsored research team reported last week that although smoke from the fires is blocking sunlight and lowering Persian Gulf temperatures, it probably will not travel outside the region or affect global climate.

Researchers said the smoke is not reaching the stratosphere but instead is being removed from the atmosphere within days. They also found lower than expected levels of sulfur dioxide, which can cause acid rain, and toxic pollutants.

NO MAJOR DISRUPTIONS

Robert Corell, NSF assistant director for geosciences, said, "Researchers have conducted the most comprehensive measurements to date of atmospheric impacts of the oil fires. We expect some regional effects on weather, but preliminary findings thus far do not suggest there will be major disruptions to global weather or climate."

The 27 researchers gathered scientific data in 35 flights over Kuwait during May 16-June 22. They reported the smoke was only half as black as expected, and mostly was between 1,000 and 10,000 ft. No smoke was found above 22,000 ft, well below the stratosphere at 35,000 ft.

Lawrence Radke of the National Center for Atmospheric Research said, "For smoke to cause a climatic catastrophe, it has to remain in the atmosphere for a long time. The only way it can do that is for it to get high into the atmosphere by not being removed by clouds.

"Theory suggested that if the smoke were black enough it would absorb sufficient heat from the sun to climb to the stratosphere. But convincing evidence from these experiments indicates that no significant fraction of the smoke is going to reach the stratosphere where it might escape removal from the atmosphere.

"In addition, in contrast to what some had expected, the smoke particles are attracted to water and should be removed efficiently by precipitation."

Researchers said additional heat absorption caused by the darkening of desert sands from fallen smoke particles may cause weather changes in parts of the gulf, but because there is much blowing dust and sand it is unclear how dark the ground will become or remain.

Radke said, "After the fires are out, much of the southern half of Kuwait may be coated black where it once was white."

The research team sought hydrogen sulfide but found it was burned by the fires and oxidized into sulfur dioxide.

Researchers found their models of smoke plume dynamics were inaccurate, the importance of the effects of blowing sand on the plume hadn't been accounted for, and plumes were affected by unexpected wave activity created by complicated, small scale airflow patterns.

Peter Hobbs, a University of Washington professor, said the well fires are consuming about 3 million b/d of oil, creating about 5,000 tons/day of soot and 9,000 tons/day of sulfur dioxide. Radke said the sulfur dioxide emissions are large, but their effects will be local and moderate.

Hobbs said the smoke cover has given Bahrain, about 225 miles southeast of Kuwait, its coolest May in 35 years, with the temperature averaging 7.4 below normal.

OPPOSING VIEWS

Friends of the Earth sent a seven member team to the Persian Gulf, but it did not conduct airborne tests.

Brent Blackwelder, Friends vice-president, said progress in fighting the oil well fires is "far worse than governments have led people to believe."

James George, former Canadian ambassador to Kuwait, said, "The situation in Kuwaiti oil fields is going from bad to worse. Huge lakes of oil are beginning to catch on fire, the most serious oil fires have not been extinguished, and the fires continue to spread."

George said the Kuwaiti government is unable to cope with such a large disaster, and if western governments do not help in the effort "we will watch a very risky climate change experiment unfold."