Eric Watkins
OGJ Oil Diplomacy Editor
LOS ANGELES, Apr. 20 -- Russia will account for 50.77% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 70.96% of supply, according to the latest Russia oil and gas report from analyst BMI.
The analyst is forecasting Russian oil production during 2007-18 to increase 13.25%, with output rising steadily to 11.3 million b/d by 2018 from 9.98 million b/d in 2007.
Oil consumption during the period is forecast to rise by 27.40%, permitting exports peaking at 7.86 million b/d in 2018.
CEE regional oil use of 4.65 million b/d in 2001 rose to 5.27 million b/d in 2007. It should average 5.36 million b/d in 2008 and then rise to 5.99 million b/d by 2013.
Regional production of 12.92 million b/d in 2007 is forecast to reach 14.96 million b/d by 2013.
Natural gas use
Russia's gas consumption is expected to be up to 546 billion cu m (bcm) by 2018 from 439 bcm, providing export potential peaking at 209 bcm at the end of the forecast period.
BMI said the region consumed 619 bcm in 2007, with demand of 753 bcm targeted for 2013, representing 21.61% growth.
Production of 756 bcm in 2007 should increase to 913 bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising to 161 bcm by the end of the period, up from 137 bcm in 2007.
Russia's share of gas consumption in 2007 was 70.89%, while its share of production was 80.35%. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 65.65%, with the country accounting for 73.36% of supply.
BMI estimates Russian real gross domestic product growth at 6.1% for 2008, down from 8.1% in 2007. BMI assumes 3.9% growth in 2009, 4.5% in 2010, and 6.2% in 2011, followed by 6.5% in 2012 and 6.4% in 2013.
State-controlled OAO Gazprom has a virtual monopoly over gas transportation and exports. With Gazprom the main provider, BMI sees gas output rising to 670 bcm by 2013 from 607 bcm in 2007.
Russian domestic companies control most of Russia's oil production with the exception being Anglo-Russian joint venture TNK-BP. Rosneft is the main state-controlled oil producer.
The companies are expected to deliver 2008 output of oil and condensates averaging 9.97 million b/d.
Oil production seems likely to grow by no more than 2%/year over the remainder of the decade. BMI's 2013 production forecast is for 10.61 million b/d.
Contact Eric Watkins at [email protected].
