BMI: Venezuela to remain major oil exporter

Venezuela will account for 8.13% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 26.46% of supply, according to the latest Venezuela Oil and Gas Report by analyst BMI.

Eric Watkins
OGJ Oil Diplomacy Editor

LOS ANGELES, June 23 -- Venezuela will account for 8.13% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 26.46% of supply, according to the latest Venezuela Oil and Gas Report by analyst BMI.

Latin America regional oil use of 6.66 million b/d in 2001 reached an estimated 7.61 million b/d in 2008, according to BMI. It should average 7.57 million b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.23 million b/d by 2013, BMI said.

Regional oil production was just under 10.4 million b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.89 million b/d. It is set to rise to 10.58 million b/d by 2013.

“Oil exports are slipping because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion,” BMI said, adding that in 2001, “the region was exporting an average 3.73 million b/d.”

This total fell to an estimated 2.28 million b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.35 million b/d in 2013. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Brazil.

Regarding natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 191.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), with demand of 254.3 bcm targeted for 2013, representing 32.9% growth.

Estimated production of 207.4 bcm in 2008 should reach 289.9 bcm in 2013, and implies 35.7 bcm of net exports by the end of the period.

Venezuela contributed an estimated 15.95% to 2008 regional gas consumption, while producing 14.7%. By 2013, Venezuela is expected to consume 19.41% of the region's gas, while contributing 18.97% to supply.

“We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of 2.8 million b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 2.35 million b/d in 2009,” BMI said.

Consumption beyond the economic weakness of 2009-10 is forecast to increase by 3%/year to 2013, implying demand of 669,000 b/d by then and yielding an export capability of about 2.13 million b/d by 2013.

Gas production is forecast to rise from an estimated 30.5 bcm in 2008 to 55 bcm over the period, allowing 5.7 bcm of exports by 2013.

“Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan oil production of 20.6%, with liquids volumes dipping to 2.35 million b/d in 2009 before rising steadily to 3.1 million b/d by 2018,” the analyst said.

Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 27.5%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3%/year towards the end of the period and the country using 775,000 b/d by 2018.

Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from 30.5 bcm in 2008 to 78 bcm in 2018. With demand growth of 106.5%, this implies export potential rising to 15 bcm by 2018.

Contact Eric Watkins at hippalus@yahoo.com.

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