WATCHING WASHINGTON BUSH'S OCS DILEMMA

Anyone curious about how decisions are made in the White House has to be dumbfounded about President Bush's indecision on three controversial offshore lease sales.

For nearly 5 months Bush has been mulling the fate of OCS Sale 91 off northern California, Sale 95 off southern California, and a portion of Sale 116 off southern Florida, all originally scheduled for this year.

HOW IT CAME ABOUT

It's ironic, but Bush brought this dilemma on himself.

In his zeal to establish himself as an environmentalist during his campaign, he urged deferral of the California sales. Because his opponent agreed, the Interior Department postponed the sales.

When Bush took office, he named a federal task force to study the California and Florida sales. After 1 0 months of exhaustive hearings and meetings, the task force sent Bush a list of options in January.

That report, leaked earlier this month (OGJ, June 4, p. 28), contained no surprises. It outlined a politically safe middle course: Delay the sales-and the controversy-several years pending completion of more environmental studies.

That dovetailed nicely with Bush's established positions.

He wants to protect the environment: "I will not allow California's golden shores, its most precious treasure, to be put at risk" (OGJ, Dec. 26, 1988, p. 23). And he hinted last April, during a fishing vacation off southern Florida, he would not allow drilling off the Everglades.

Bush says he wants continued exploration with appropriate safeguards. Last February he declared, "I have said we're not going to have drilling in highly environmentally sensitive places, but I'll be darned if I think we ought to shut down offshore drilling everywhere."

So then, why has the president been beating around the bush on his decision?

Originally, he was expected to decide in January, but that was postponed until February.

In March, Interior Sec. Lujan was confident Bush would decide within 2 weeks. In April, Lujan said it would come "in a few weeks."

Amid all that, Bush asked Interior and other agencies for more data. They provided it. Then he wanted elaborations.

Last week, Lujan speculated Bush's decision could come "soon." He explained, "The president used to say it's going to be weeks rather than months, and now he says its going to be days rather than weeks."

Lujan added, "We still keep getting requests for information. He wants to make sure he makes the right decision.

POLITICAL UNDERTONES?

The Interior secretary discounted theories that the delay has political undertones-that Bush doesn't want to harm the election prospects for Republican congressional and gubernatorial candidates in California and Florida.

Lujan argued, "Politically, it would serve the purpose of the administration to decide as soon as possible" because the decision might prompt some backlash, and the further that occurs from the November elections the better.

Even if Bush hands down his decision soon, the experience should serve as a lesson for the Interior Department. If a decision is needed on offshore leasing, don't "Let George do it."