Light, sweet crude oil for April delivery rose to settle above $54/bbl on the New York market Feb. 13 while Brent for April climbed more than $1/bbl to settle above $63/bbl in London. A weekly US inventory report showed higher oil inventories, but US oil production held unchanged.
While many analysts have closely monitored US-China trade talks, Standard Chartered analysts suggest another risk facing world oil demand is Germany.
The Wall Street Journal reported that German oil demand fell every month last year from March to November 2018 compared with the 2017. The WSJ cited data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.
Standard Chartered estimates German oil demand fell 181,000 b/d in 2018, and analysts believe it will decline more during 2019-20. Separately, the International Energy Agency forecast China’s oil demand growth will hold at 470,000 b/d in 2019.
“Traders have been worrying far too much about one thing,” said Paul Horsnell, Standard Chartered head of commodities research. “Everybody was watching China and expecting the big swings to come from there. The places to watch were really US and Germany.”
The US Energy Information Administration reported US crude oil inventories for the week ended Feb. 8, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 3.6 million bbl from the previous week, to 450.8 million bbl (OGJ Online, Feb. 13, 2018).
The Petroleum Status Report said US oil production for the week ended Feb. 8 was 11.9 million b/d, changed from the previous week.
Energy prices
The March contract for light, sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 80¢ to settle at $53.90/bbl on Feb. 13. The contract for April delivery climbed 84¢ to settle at $54.31/bbl.
NYMEX natural gas for March dropped 11¢ to a rounded $2.58/MMbtu on Feb. 13.
Ultralow-sulfur diesel for March gained 3¢ to a rounded $1.94/gal. The NYMEX reformulated gasoline blendstock for March increased by nearly 4¢ to a rounded $1.47/gal.
Brent crude for April delivery gained $1.19 to settle at $63.61/bbl while the May contract increased $1.18 to settle at $63.58/bbl. The gas oil contract for March gained $11.50 to $594.50/tonne on Feb. 13.
The average price for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ basket of crudes was $62.94/bbl on Feb. 13, up $1.06.
Contact Paula Dittrick at [email protected].
