IHS Markit expects US natural gas production to rise almost 8 bcfd—more than 10%—this year and by another 60% over the next 20 years, according to a recent report, The Shale Gale Turns 10: A Powerful Wind at America’s Back. IHS Markit also now estimates that about 1,250 tcf of US supply is economic at below a $4/MMbtu Henry Hub price, up from a previous estimate of 900 tcf in 2010.
When the shale revolution began a decade ago, the prevailing assumption was that the US supply base was being exhausted and that the country would have to become a major LNG importer. Instead US output rose by more than 40% during 2007-17 and real gas prices fell by two-thirds during the same period.
The US is now on track to become one of the world’s major LNG exporters, the report notes. IHS Markit expects US LNG export capacity to more than double in the next 5 years, reaching at least 10 bcfd by 2023.
Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman, IHS Markit and co-author of the report, noted that the transition’s “profound and ongoing impacts on the industry, energy markets, the wider economy, and the US position in the world continue to unfold.” The most dramatic effect has been on the US electric power industry, the report says. By 2040, IHS Markit expects gas’ share of electric power generation in the US to grow from almost one-third to nearly half.
The report observes that shale gas also has made a major contribution to reducing US carbon dioxide emissions. IHS Markit estimates that in 2017, CO2 emissions from power generation were down 30% from 2005. More than half of that emission decline was from gas replacing coal.
Surging shale production also has reshaped the US position in the global oil market. Between 2008 and 2018, US oil output more than doubled, exceeding the previous high set in 1970. On a net basis, the US went from importing 60% of its liquid fuel at the peak to less than 16% in 2018, and the share is still falling. The US is now on track to be the world’s largest oil producer, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia, by early next year, according to IHS Markit.
Reaching downstream, IHS Markit estimates that more than $120 billion in new capital investments will be made 2012-20 to expand US petrochemical manufacturing capacity, a result of abundant and inexpensive gas and NGL providing advantages in terms of thermal energy, feedstock, and electricity costs. Ancillary investments could double that number, the report says.