By the OGJ Online Staff
HOUSTON, Feb. 22 -- Demand for future incremental natural gas supplies and transportation needs in the targeted market exceed the amount of capacity that would be provided by the proposed Patriot natural gas pipeline extension project, according to a new study.
The study, by energy consulting firm Merrimack Energy, Salem, NH, was commissioned by East Tennessee Natural Gas, a subsidiary of Duke Energy Corp..
The report assessed natural gas demand and associated economic impacts in the US Southeast markets targeted by the proposed system expansion. The proposal is pending before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
"Without additional gas infrastructure, such as the capacity provided by the Patriot extension, regions of the Southeast could face limitations on pipeline capacity, which could limit the construction of new power generation options needed to meet market growth," the study concluded.
Annual natural gas requirements in the Virginia and North Carolina markets are projected to increase by 410 bcf by 2010 from from 2000 levels, while peak day requirements in the target market are projected to increase by 1.5 bcfd during that period.
"These market projections illustrate that the potential demand for natural gas in the region exceeds the pipeline capacity proposed," the report said.
The Patriot extension will consist of about 94 miles of pipeline from Virginia to North Carolina to bring gas for the first time to parts of Southwest Virginia and introduce a competitive supply to North Carolina from Appalachian and Gulf Coast producers, said the consultant (OGJ, Feb. 4, 2002, p. 69).
The 24-in. Patriot extension would originate from Duke's East Tennessee system in Wythe County, Va.; cross Carroll, Patrick, and Henry counties in Virginia; and terminate in Rockingham County, NC. About 7 miles of lateral line would run from Rockingham County to Henry County, Va., the study said.
The power market is expected to drive the regional growth in gas demand, the report said.
"In the power market, the project will provide access to gas supplies to support new power generation requirements in a market area that has been one of the fastest-growing in the country and one that has historically experienced underutilization of gas in the power market," the report said.
Peak electric demand in the Virginia-Carolinas area is projected to grow 2.3%/year through 2010. The growth rate reflects an increase in peak demand of more than 13,000 Mw during 2000-10.