War in Yemen menaces the oil market far out of proportion to the country's oil production of only 20,000 b/d.
Militancy threatens to close the Bab al Mandab Strait connecting the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
According to US Navy Comdr. Jeremy Vaughn and Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the Office of Naval Intelligence last month warned of mines near the mouth of Yemen's Mocha Harbor, north of the strait.
The Navy believes Houthi rebels installed the mines. Aided by Iran, Houthis have been fighting the Yemeni government for 3 years.
The government, supported by a coalition partners led by Saudi Arabia, lately has escalated the civil war in an apparent attempt to regain control of all the Red Sea coast.
In a Washington Institute policy note, Vaugh and Henderson report that the mining isn't the only maritime threat.
Houthis have attacked American and Emirati warships with cruise missiles near the strait at least four times since last fall.
The attacks ceased after the US Navy destroyed coastal radar installations with Tomahawk missiles.
But the mine threat has emerged since then. And a Saudi frigate fell under attack Jan. 30 off the port of Hodeida, apparently from a weaponized speedboat controlled remotely.
The US Energy Information Administration estimates 3.8 million b/d transited Bab al Mandab in 2013. That's less than a fourth the amount of oil that passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily that year between the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea.
But the Bab al Mandab's closure would deny oil moving in tankers between the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean use of the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline.
The consequent diversion around Africa's southern tip would add 15 days to voyages between the gulf and Europe and 8-10 days between the gulf and US.
While a closed Bab al Mandab probably wouldn't stay that way very long, the disruption would rattle oil markets and raise prices. It's a hazard that shouldn't be ignored.
(From the subscription area of www.ogj.com, posted Mar. 3, 2017; author's e-mail: [email protected])
