The Oil Market–1: Past, present, and near term

The high price of oil has become a dominant subject of interest not only for the international oil business but also for the global economy and the economies of most countries. With the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange having exceeded $55/bbl last year and remaining above $40/bbl so far this year, the interest is not surprising.The oil price rise has been compared with the "oil price shocks" of 1973, 1979-80, and 1990. This article attempts to put this comparison into perspective, examine the technical fundamentals, and project current trends into the short-term future. A subsequent article will examine other market dimensions, such as politic...

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