Ever realize how much fun you can have with numbers? One might argue that they are merely written symbols that represent values assigned by humans with varying degrees of accuracy. Pretty dry. Pretty static.
But because it's humans assigning the values, that is where the fun comes in. Humans can make numbers do amazing tricks in the service of larger goals. OGJ editors use them to better inform readers; Economics Editor Marilyn Radler, Statistics Editor Laura Bell, and Survey Editor Jeanne Stell spend a great deal of time compiling, calculating, and analyzing numbers. And OGJ's Online Research Center (www.ogjresearch.com) has more ways to slice and dice numbers than, well, than you can count.
OGJ numbers are a widely read barometer of the oil and gas industry but certainly not the only ones. Sometimes they can cause controversy, as can be seen in the special report article on the peak-oil debate that begins on p. 18. You too can get in on the fun by participating in the General Interest Forum on the peak-oil debate at www.ogjonline.com.
This issue's report kicks off a series of six consecutive special reports on Future Energy Supply. Subsequent reports will focus on natural gas potential, oil sands and extra-heavy crude, improved oil recovery, refiners' adjustments, and alternate energy. And still more numbers to come.
Mischief with numbers
Sometimes tricks with numbers can amount to mischief—i.e., offering intentionally misleading or erroneous information.
One popular numbers game employed by social activists is to just toss in a number attached with a morbid event, and the number becomes a grim statistic. Uh-oh. You've seen this trick before, as in this hypothetical example: "Today the Greener Than Thou Action Coalition announced a new study showed that sport utility vehicles' excessive gasoline consumption is responsible for an additional 543,221.5 premature deaths each year due to increased emissions, etc."
Gee, I was always under the impression everyone's death is premature, at least on a personal level. I know mine will come way too soon. And what exactly is 0.5 deaths? Half a death? Is this guy in a coma? Limbo? Listening to Barry Manilow? Explain, please.
Scoff if you will, but this kind of actuarial modeling is done every day by regulatory agencies and activist groups. A major political stink erupted in May when the Bush administration, in calculating the net economic benefits of new clean air regulations, used a formula that estimated that the life of a person over 70 was worth 37% less than the life of a younger person. Talk about your senior citizen discount. Think it's unfair to value one person's life differently from another's? Fine, talk to your insurance agent. Then to a personal injury lawyer.
Sometimes the best trick of all is to omit relevant numbers to make one's case or to make small numbers look bigger by changing the units of measurement. A study conducted last year for American Public Transportation Association found that if only 1 in 10 Americans used public transportation regularly, that would reduce US reliance on imported oil by 40%. Wow. The July 17, 2002, press release that contained this nugget went on to equate this with the volume the US imports from Saudi Arabia. Wait a minute. Last year, the US imported 1.5 million b/d of oil from Saudi Arabia; total US oil imports averaged 11.5 million b/d. You do the math.
The APTA study also stated that public transportation saves 855 million gal/year of gasoline. Sounds pretty impressive, until you realize that this amounts to 1.3% of total US gasoline consumption, or 0.6% of total US oil consumption, in 2002.
So if 1 in 10 Americans were to take the bus 10 times a week, the reduced reliance on imported oil would be, uh, let's see, carry the 1, shift the decimal—oh, heck, a gazillion percent increase in bus ridership. (Now you know why I went into journalism and not accounting).
Oh, I get it: They must be using the ultimate acrobat-contortionist-magician of the numbers game: statistical modeling.
Back to reality
Smart people can make statistical models do pretty much anything. The folks in the peak-oil debate spend a lot of time figuratively beating each other over the heads with Gaussian curves, asymptotes, Klingon graphs, whatever, to make their arguments. Working on this special report got a little dizzying.
From the ridiculous to the sublime. Regardless of who is right in this tiff, the ultimate consequences bear heavily on nothing less than the fate of humanity in the 21st Century.
Did that get your number?