EIA forecasts higher summer gasoline prices

According to the US Energy Information Administration’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), regular gasoline retail prices are projected to average $3.61/gal during the April-September summer driving season this year, 3¢ higher than last year and 4¢ higher than projected in last month’s STEO.

However, the projected US annual average regular retail gasoline price, which fell from $3.63/gal in 2012 to an average of $3.51/gal in 2013, will continue to fall to $3.48/gal in 2014 and $3.39/gal in 2015.

In the recent monthly outlook, total US liquid fuels consumption is expected to average 18.92 million b/d in 2014, 20,000 b/d more than projected in April, and 18.99 million b/d in 2015, compared with 18.89 million b/d in 2013. Total consumption growth, however, slows from an estimated 400,000 b/d in 2013 to 40,000 b/d in 2014 and 70,000 b/d in 2015.

Increasing transportation demand for distillate fuel oil and industrial demand for hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) are the main drivers of liquid fuels consumption. Consumption of HGL registered the largest gain in 2013, increasing 150,000 b/d (6.4%), and is projected to rise 30,000 b/d in 2014 and 50,000 b/d in 2015, led by increasing ethane use as a feedstock in ethylene production units. Distillate fuel consumption increased 90,000 b/d (2.5%) last year, reflecting colder weather and US economic growth and will rise 70,000 b/d and 60,000 b/d in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Motor gasoline consumption will increase 20,000 b/d in 2014 and remains largely flat in 2015 as the recent strong growth in highway travel slows and continued improvements in new-vehicle fuel economy boost overall fuel efficiency growth. In 2013, motor gasoline consumption increased 90,000 b/d (1.1%)—the largest increase since 2006.

In the report, EIA forecasts total US crude oil production to increase from an estimated 7.4 million b/d in 2013 to 8.5 million b/d in 2014 and 9.2 million b/d in 2015. As new wells in the Mars field began producing ahead of schedule in February, Gulf of Mexico crude oil production—which has fallen for 4 consecutive years, is forecast to increase 150,000 b/d in 2014 and by an additional 240,000 b/d in 2015.

Petroleum imports continue to decline due to strong growth in US production. The share of total US liquid fuels consumption met by net import is expected to decline to 23% in 2015, the lowest level since 1970.

New pipeline capacity from the Midwest into the Gulf Coast helped reduce inventories at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub to 25 million bbl by the end of April, the lowest level since October 2009. The discount of West Texas Intermediate to Brent crude oil, which averaged more than $13/bbl from November through January, fell below $4/bbl in early April. EIA projects Brent crude oil prices to average $106/bbl in 2014 and $102/bbl in 2015 and the WTI discount to Brent to average $10/bbl and $11/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Related Articles

EIA: US oil output fell 50,000 b/d in May

07/07/2015 Total US crude oil production dropped 50,000 b/d in May compared with April and is expected to continue falling through early 2016 before growth re...

BLM approves ROW for Elko gas pipeline expansion project

07/07/2015 The US Bureau of Land Management’s Tuscarora, Nev., field office signed a decision record approving a right-of-way for Paiute Pipeline Co.’s (PPC) ...

Obama urged by IPAA president to lift ban on US crude exports

07/07/2015 Commending the administration for its actions allowing some condensate to be exported as a petroleum product, Independent Petroleum Association of ...

AER shuts in 16 Murphy Oil sites in Peace River region for noncompliance

07/07/2015 Alberta Energy Regulator said it has shut in or partially shut in 16 sites operated by Murphy Oil Co. Ltd. in the Peace River region. The sites wer...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX, Brent oil prices take dive on world oil oversupply concerns

07/07/2015 US light, sweet crude oil prices plummeted more than $4/bbl on the New York market July 6, marking a 5-month low, while Brent crude oil prices on t...

WAFWA: Aerial survey finds lesser prairie chicken population grew

07/06/2015 A recent range-wide aerial survey found the lesser prairie chicken population rose 25% from 2014 to 2015, the Western Association of Fish & Wil...

Buru awarded onshore Canning licenses

07/06/2015 Buru Energy Ltd., Perth, and Mitsubish Corp. have been granted two production licenses for Ungani oil field in the onshore Canning basin of Western...

Cenovus sells royalty business for $3.3 billion

07/06/2015 Cenovus Energy Inc., Calgary, inked an agreement to sell its wholly owned subsidiary Heritage Royalty LP to Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan for gros...

CERI: Energy, operational efficiencies possible in Canadian oil, gas

07/06/2015 Measures can be taken by operators in the expanding resource-intensive Canadian oil and gas sector to improve both energy efficiency and operationa...
White Papers

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts

On Demand

OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST


Predictive Analytics in your digital oilfield - Optimize Production Yield and Reduce Operational Costs

Tue, Jul 7, 2015

Putting predictive analytics to work in your oilfield can help you anticipate failures, plan and schedule work in advance, eliminate emergency work and catastrophic failures, and at the same time you can optimize working capital and improve resource utilization.  When you apply analytic capabilities to critical production assets it is possible to reduce non-productive time and increase your yield.

Learn how IBM's analytics capabilities can be applied to critical production assets with the goal of reducing non-productive time, increasing yield and reducing operations costs.

register:WEBCAST


Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected