P. 5 ~ Continued - Dependent on dependence: Are economic calculations of expected hydrocarbon accumulations worthwhile?

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References

1. Lerche, I., and MacKay, J.A., "Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration," Academic Press, 1999, 403 pp.

2. Lerche, I., and MacKay, J.A., "Faults, Flow, Finance and Pressure in Exploration Assessments," MultiScience Press, 2007, 328 pp.

3. Megill, R.E., "Exploration Economics," Petroleum Publishing Co., Tulsa, 1971.

4. Megill, R.E., "An Introduction to Risk Analysis," Petroleum Publishing Co., Tulsa, 1977.

5. Newendorp, P.D., and Root, P.J., "Risk Analysis in Drilling Investment Decisions," J. Pet. Tech., Vol. 20, 1968, pp. 579-85.

6. Newendorp, P.D., "Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration," Petroleum Publishing Co., Tulsa, 1975.

7. Nind, T.E.W., "Profitability of Oilfield Projects," Southam-MacLean's Oil/Gas World, 1959, p. 14.

8. Nind, T.E.W., "Principles of Oil Well Production," McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York, 1981, 391 pp.

9. Rose, P.R., "Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty in Exploration: How can we Improve?," AAPG Bull., Vol. 71, 1987, pp. 1-16.

10. Rose, P.R., "Chance of success and its use in petroleum exploration," in R. Steinmetz, ed., "The Business of Petroleum Exploration," AAPG Treatise of Petroleum Geology: Handbook of Petroleum Geology, 1992, pp. 71-86.

11. Rose, P.R., "Implementing Risk Analysis in Exploration Organizations: What Works? What Doesn't?," notes distributed at the AAPG meeting, 1994.

12. Bickel, J.E., and Smith, J.E., "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis, Vol. 3, 2006, pp. 16-32.

13. Bickel, J.E., Smith, J.E., and Meyer, J.L., "Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering, Vol. 3, 2008, pp. 233-51.

The authors

Jim MacKay is a senior associate in Rose & Associates in Houston. He was a driving force behind the statistical applications of the risk assessment group at Texaco for many years and is renowned for his short courses to the oil and energy industry on risking methods and procedures. He was also with exploration research at Texaco for several years where he was instrumental in the adoption of a successful risk assessment process still used. His main interests are all aspects of risk analysis for hydrocarbon exploration and production. He has authored several dozen papers on all aspects of risking. He has a degree in geology from Brigham Young University.

Ian Lerche ([email protected]) is on the faculty at Martin Luther University in Germany. His main professional interests are hydrocarbon exploration and production risk problems, environmental and economic assessment of geohazards, astrophysics, and applied mathematics. In 1981-84 he worked as a senior research geophysicist and then as a research associate for Gulf Research & Development Co. He received a BS in physics in 1962 and a PhD in astronomy in 1965 from the University of Manchester.

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