Libyan oil output gyrates again as terminals attacked

Aug. 13, 2018
After a relatively steady year, oil production in Libya plunged in June as militancy once again hobbled oil export terminals. Output had stayed about 1 million b/d most months since July 2017, having recovered from 260,000 b/d in August 2016.

After a relatively steady year, oil production in Libya plunged in June as militancy once again hobbled oil export terminals. Output had stayed about 1 million b/d most months since July 2017, having recovered from 260,000 b/d in August 2016.

But in mid-June, terminals at Ras Lanuf and Sidra came under attack by militants led by Ibrahim Jadhran, former commander of the Petroleum Facilities Guard, forcing National Oil Corp. to suspend exports.

NOC extended the freeze to the Hariga and Zueitina terminals early in July after the Libyan National Army (LNA), which is not part of the internationally recognized government in Tripoli, took control of Ras Lanuf and Sidra and handed custody of all four terminals to a different NOC allied with rival factions dominating the east.

The LNA soon returned control of the terminals to the official NOC, which allowed exports to restart on July 11. By then, Libyan production had fallen below 500,000 b/d, creating hardship throughout the politically fractured country.

Through all this, Khalifa Haftar, commander of the LNA, appears to have extracted from the Tripoli government commitment to an audit of oil revenue. Haftar has long complained eastern Libya benefits insufficiently from oil sales.

He also might have positioned himself for a presidential candidacy in elections to be held by Dec. 10 under a May agreement brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The terminal takeovers reassert Haftar’s power in the east. And the handovers show a touch of diplomacy.

While the agreement to hold presidential and parliamentary elections was an achievement, expectations are low.

If elections are even held, they’ll probably be dismissed as corrupt, especially by losers. And even Haftar would have trouble governing present-day Libya.

He also might face competition that would imply much about Libyan politics.

A rumored candidate is Saif Al Islam Gadhafi, son of former dictator Moammar Gadhafi, whose 2011 death at the hands of rebels left a vacuum over which the would-be powerful continue to fight.

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