Thu, 11 Sep 2008|
HE Dr. Chakib Khelil, Minister of Energy and Mines of Algeria, OPEC Conference President interviewed during 149th Meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna, Austria on 9/9/2008.
Thanks so much for joining us now I'm looking at this is the market we've seen a big decline in price in the last few months at a very drastic -- -- We knew it had gone up so much and now we see this huge -- what do you think has been the main -- behind that. As you know we said that before I think you said that he set prime. Crisis in August September 2007. He was. You know stopped. It -- got which that daughter. And -- for -- relations between the dollar value and the or in the price you see that. Increase after that event of about 4546. Dollars. Which. ACP. Speech you know the maximum in July. Why. You know phase -- you know between the that's the bottom of the dollar and the top -- so now -- seeing actually. Hurts relationship. And terrified. Basically you what to -- before. He's being. Checked you know by even yesterday you know with the price -- and now it's about -- 41. -- price. It's going down about 200. Dollars -- I think the action. The you know to speak connectors. -- -- -- -- -- measure enough to do what's happened. Price reaching those heights. And we seeing those. Fonts you know now -- market so now we going back slowly to the fundamentals you know basically. Happening the production. And you know -- consumption -- on the equilibrium. Basic control the press but we're not there yet. I think myself that. The -- will probably would continue even if there is. Yeah. Shortage in the markets you know because of these. Inverse relationship and the action. In the -- acres. But where's that money gone that may have come off in the commodities had a bit but there's still plenty of money on the commodities and we would hope it would stay there. But it it has -- gone into the premarket -- where is that money in the village justice quickly come back into the UN market things improve. Well -- fixing probe of course but I think and that Monday's -- he's been seeking the highest every time if they feel that's way it's going. Given to actually sounded that would come back. But right now I think the the economy and well the -- -- -- the nature. Factor on the -- slowing now that the man shall -- she's got you know happening in the US with that property. Knowing about almost a million after -- which which has gone down the US. We've seen some impact in -- and in Europe. That we don't see any major impact in China and India and -- in the east but we don't know what the extent of that sort at same time we have. Increasing supply from an OPEC like -- the US it's. Has increased its supply because of the high you know price for much of the marginal machines -- put on production. We see prescient you know he is starting -- you know what does it offshore with you know 25000 she's modest. Talking about eighteen billion -- -- For. And that would probably translates into a huge amount -- that could come in the market -- next eight years. -- or these. Parameters I think have to have an impact. We seeing all -- changes the -- you know we had. Application which I think recently and now we have -- -- again. Which means people probably -- and you know -- to stop rather -- the stock you know the the toys and because also the madness of the -- so we gonna see some over. By the end of the year. And probably and much more -- 2000 minus I think -- -- -- very interesting situation. That can find itself and and he has to -- So that will be a big challenge -- you when you look ahead to the next few months the danger that the market could be way -- -- And what then can open access to and it looks at that -- the longer term what you have to do in terms of coming together and really examining what the next move for you would be. I think it is the end. It would have been easier -- not for the fortitude. If we did not happen now the issue -- how. Do we dealing with the fortitude to do how do we. -- You know see that the major. Trend. By taking out you know didn't always -- in the sense you know the fortitude to -- the hurricanes and -- you. George in -- and or soul how far you know it is recession is -- -- be -- -- that. And so that's going to be the difficulty it in any case I think you OPEC has always been. War -- standardizing you know the market and it's very important for the OPEC countries and for producing countries in general. Who have really easy daily -- revenues which means that really. And main objective would be to have a stable. Maybe not necessarily very high prices that's very stable prices would have said that all the time and I think we look at -- that. So. The important is -- -- also the action you know if you take. Two early action it's going to be counterproductive -- too -- action to date. And you would have to do much more effort -- to correct it we have examples. 86. Examples of 98 so we have to reflect on those and -- take the appropriate. Decisions I think. It took about coming back to the fundamentals which I'm -- a lot of the ministers. Are very happy about that there is a bit of stability in the way may be coming back to the market where at least the fundamentals count again. How important is it that this is what stays the focus now in terms of supply and demand and you can get on with making appropriate decisions. I think it's it's a very important tonight in the sense that pace that we take out you -- is the impact of the other factors with -- That was sure that daughter that you so usually we -- with economic growth. We -- away at the demon is gonna be -- how strong is gonna be and so forth so we. -- that the because the object useful for its -- to make sure to meet. That the united. -- I'm -- stable you know. Prices. In the interest of both consumers and producers of course. I think. This -- a chance for us you know to to make the appropriate decisions. To achieve this the stable you know market. And at the same time you know make sure that the economy. -- world economy keeps keeps going. Because it's the web economy that -- The increasing demand then -- basically. -- you know you producing countries you know existence -- terms of teaching. Now OPEC is -- producing what about 32 million barrels a day. The little overweight and -- the -- it was so they should be plenty of -- on the market in terms which it anticipated needed. Would you say the market is adequately spider may -- -- -- at this point or what message would you send to the consuming countries right now. I think the market is adequately -- I think it's that if you everybody if you look at. You know the -- -- -- the stocks you know whether it's full grown dog whether it's for -- Gasoline or for diesel I think we see we see that now we even see yes sly. -- you know -- because if you look at the days of days of consumption. Justified by the stocks and take into account all the demons and the army. Adequately more than adequately -- process of buying it -- the market. But I think the concern is more in the future you know what's that what's -- -- happen with. The -- Going going very high. And having to deal with the -- in the future so why don't we are adequate supply. I think we got an -- going toward due to the weakness of the economy. To be increased due to increase supply. Despite -- -- of course but also nonopec and I mentioned -- -- what. The increase from certain countries are so we gonna. Happen over overhead. Today. -- -- this year and maybe on my children and you know Eddie. Next year because of the I don't know what demand. And also the fact that -- in the second quarter of 2000 line you're gonna have decreased demand which is which usually happen. So we have to -- with all of those. Factors but we've had who had many experiences you know this type of situations I'm sure -- it to the right decision. But given that gloomy economic picture and the global horizon. How does this -- them for investment I mean we've heard before there's not enough investment in this industry and I know -- OPEC countries OPEC members are actually. Doing what they canned. But how will -- impact investment in the energy industry. I think it all depends of course on the stability and -- oil price. And I think -- the industry in general it's very concerned. About the lack of easy -- it young -- fast. And on and then. And now and expect to return in ten years from now. Not knowing you know what's -- rising price you know it's going to be. So it's very important for foreign investors to see how these prices and a so these going up to 146. And going down to a -- is not good. Definitely for for investors now those who are already invested you know -- They had to do they have -- the investments -- the frequency. OPEC member countries you mentioned we're investing 162. Billion dollars already in production you know increases. And I think that's gonna come to fruition to the next three to four years. And we seeing. You know new Ares I can proceed to -- today -- -- -- that we find the resources. For those now we see or -- the -- -- that cost as you know. We have cost increases of three times four times. Four -- -- festivities for gas facilities for refineries. That's what that does not to vote -- review for. Investments outside does that -- -- the commitment right. And -- -- investment cooking in your own country how are things looking in Algeria to talk more interest in your country right now. Yeah of course I think in Algeria I think we have the first -- around and that the new hydrocarbon law we have what. And of the -- about fifteen you brock's we have lots of interest about seventy companies. Interest at this rough suppose those I expiration which -- analysts see. -- -- results from that effort before ten years maybe fifteen years. So. That's -- that's one area -- second area we are you know maintaining -- -- production for toys for equities. And Arnold Tom and we are especially increasing. Production of gas soul increasing our exports gas to Italy. By next year by seven billion Q -- the gas pipeline going -- she's tonight. And then we are next would be to -- increasing by eight billion. Through these you Akron where -- thing that we got me into 2100. Meter what that. And that sort project which is coming nature to build new gas pipeline to Italy to sucked and yeah. That would export eight and we are so isn't too. You -- action plans. That would allow us to export to about ten million pounds of equipment strategy. By 2013. So there's lots of you know very good that prospects for. Increasing exports and of course we have major role in Europe meeting their -- -- gas. And we continued. And of course we don't get the opportunity to have a look at that in the upcoming OPEC meeting when all -- the next meeting is held in your country -- a little bit of a sneak preview before we go in terms of what we can expect in December. -- in December if you are you gonna be in that Orion or Andy's. And major CT in it's. Okay it. After Algiers and we wanted. You know to -- a bit because last time we. We had been teaching -- -- to -- and an arm or he's not far from our main. Industrial. Area which is the opposite area. So anybody whose interest it you know true to visit. You know you make it easy to note that this basically and yet and and NG plants refineries. Fertilizer plants we have also desalination plants again. But also the city he's very has -- rich. You know paying attention. Of course. Not the -- heritage but also the French. And also has some even. Spanish -- and Portuguese -- -- was as strategy if you. -- That was always the aim of controlled by different powers at this time. And it says it's a beautiful city. So I think you you would enjoy if I watch him by coming to its Aurora. It's if -- December it's going to be very pleasant. We may end up with some brand in -- Which is very today it. Okay thank you so much for -- -- --