After trading over a fairly tight range for more than 4 months on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the front-month crude contract finally broke through to the upside only to trade within an even tighter range of $79-80/bbl through 19 days in late October and early November.

The recession appears to have ended in June, “although not officially declared yet,” said analysts with Deutsche Bank AG, London.

Starting with its January sales program, Saudi Aramco, national oil company of Saudi Arabia, will switch from West Texas Intermediate to an index of Gulf Coast sour crudes as the benchmark for pricing its oil for sale in the US market.

The Department of Transportation said total miles driven in the US during August were up 0.7% from the same period in 2008, following a 2.3% gain in July.

On Oct. 14, the front-month crude contract closed above $75/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the first time since the same date in 2008, ending a long period when intraday prices were “neatly shoe-horned” into a precise $10/bbl range.

The US Energy Information Administration has adopted a new methodology to show high and low ranges for its forecasts of oil and natural gas prices, as revealed in the October issue of its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

In a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Deutsche Bank AG said it will change the composition of its $3.3 billion PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) to become more diversified and to comply with position limits imposed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commodities market regulation in the US seems to be moving towards higher capital requirements and bureaucratization with relatively little impact on prices in the long run, said Paul Horsnell, managing director and head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London. However, he warned, “Expect the center of gravity of world oil trading to move further away from US markets.”

Position limits being considered by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to eliminate “excessive” market speculation could create problems for companies trading energy commodities, said John England, managing partner for energy in Deloitte & Touche LLP’s markets consulting practice.

A four-session natural gas rally from a 7-year low culminated with a 15% jump past $3/MMbtu Sept. 10—the largest 1-day gain in almost 5 years in the New York market.

Citing new limitations on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Deutsche Bank AG said in early September it would close and redeem its popular $425 million PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange Traded Note (DXO)—one of the largest leveraged commodity products in the US.

The “most comfortable” range for crude prices would be $65-75/bbl—“$10/bbl below the minimum of what is the desired price in broad terms for the key producers” within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Paul Horsnell, a managing director and head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London.

For more than 100 years, US legislators have passed laws to reduce price volatility and prevent manipulation of commodity markets. So why should today’s “new wave of regulation” prove any better than those in the past? asks Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist, Deutsche Bank, Washington, DC.

The US Energy Information Administration reported natural gas in underground storage topped 3 tcf with a 66 bcf injection in the week ended July 31.

A growing market force is floating crude prices above levels justified by the simple fundamentals of supply and demand, said analysts at KBC Market Services, a division of KBC Process Technology Ltd. in Surrey, UK.

Strong rallies in both equity and commodity markets in late July pushed front-month crude contracts above $68/bbl in New York and $70/bbl in London just 2 weeks after the price dipped below $60/bbl in a more pessimistic market.

Four consecutive weeks of smaller-than-expected injections of natural gas into US storage triggered a 12% price jump for the front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange in mid-July in what some hoped might be the first sign that well shut-ins and reduced drilling may be decreasing supply.

It was more than a resurgence of economic pessimism that slashed the August contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes by $11.60/bbl through seven of eight trading sessions to a $59.89/bbl close July 10 on the New York market, said Paul Horsnell, a managing director and head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London.

Front-month crude contracts jumped June 30 to “fake” intraday highs of $73.38/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange—the highest this year—and $73.50/bbl on the International Petroleum Exchange through unauthorized trades by an employee at a subsidiary of PVM Oil Associates Ltd., London.

Crude prices are sure to rise since “world peace isn't breaking out,” said analysts in the Houston office of Raymond James & Associates Inc.