Associazione Generale Operatori Carboni (Assocarboni), a Rome-based organization representing companies in the Italian coal industry, has challenged the European Commission's energy scenario for a continent increasingly dependent on natural gas.
Assocarboni disputed some of the findings of an EC energy report titled World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook (WETO).
While agreeing with WETO's estimate that world energy consumption will double over the next 30 years, Assocarboni Pres. Andrea Clavarino dismissed the EC report as being skewed by claims that increased supplies of natural gas will satisfy increasing world energy needs.
"Even if the oil reserves are expected to be exhausted, other potential valid solutions should be considered," Cla- varino said. He introduced concerns about energy security, explaining, "Gas does not represent the best solution because of the producers' regional oligopolies."
This especially concerns the European Union, where domestic reserves of natural gas are limited and suppliers are relatively few. "Europeans must know that gas will be mainly imported (from) only two non-European countries—Russia and Algeria—with two major consequences: an even greater imports dependence and a costly gas price policy," Clavarino said.
Considering the report's prediction of a 1.8% annual increase in world energy demand, Clavarino suggested that the most suitable solution would be a balanced fuels mix, avoiding dependence on a unique energy resource or a limited number of suppliers.
"Coal must be part of this mix for strong reasons: its great availability in more than 110 countries, reserves for more than 270 years, and its low-cost price due to the diversified supplying resources," Clavarino said.
He explained that implementation of clean-coal technologies would guarantee a more environmentally friendly use of coal, allowing retention of more than 90% of the harmful gas emissions.
WETO scenarios
Published on May 13, WETO predicts the world will have a huge energy and environmental crisis on its hands by 2030 unless research activities and policies are stepped up to cut emissions of greenhouse gases and better promote the deployment of renewable energies.
The report assesses the impact of individual energy projections, energy technology progress, and climate change indicators on the future of global energy systems. It estimates that if current energy consumption trends and structural changes in the global economy continue, the world's energy consumption will double over the next 30 years.
"This study provides us with an invaluable insight into the world's energy and environmental problems of the future," said EU Commissioner for Research Philippe Busquin, adding that the report "will enable us to establish our future research and technological development priorities in the energy and environment field."
One insight is that fossil fuels will continue to dominate the world energy system, making up almost 90% of the total energy supply in 2030. The study says world oil production should increase by about 65% to reach some 120 million b/d in 2030, with 75% of the increase coming from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Gas production is projected to double between 2000 and 2030, with more than 33% of total production likely to originate from the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2030, while coal will continue to be extracted, with production expected to double by 2030.
"Coal production is expected to increase by 2.3%/year on average over the projection period, mostly in Africa and Asia (4.5%/year and 3%/year, respectively)," the report says. "In contrast, production will continue to decline in the EU (–0.8%/year). In 2030, more than half the world's coal production will originate from Asia, and most particularly from China (35%), while the USA will remain the second producer with a share of about 20%."
However, in Europe natural gas is expected to be the largest energy source after oil, ahead of coal and lignite. WETO acknowledges that European reserves of natural gas are limited, possibly leading to supply risks, as supplies will have to be imported from the Middle East and other regions, in order to meet EU demand.
Rising CO2 emissions
Given the continued dominance of fossil fuels, the report estimates that world carbon dioxide emissions will increase rapidly, at a rate of about 2%/year, rising in 2030 to more than twice the level that they were in 1990.
While CO2 emissions in Europe will rise by about 18%, the figures for the US show a 50% increase. Furthermore, whereas developing countries accounted for only 30% of emissions in 1990, WETO finds they will be responsible for more than 50% of the world's emissions by 2030.
In light of these findings, "to safeguard energy supplies and meet our Kyoto (Protocol) commitments, Europe must intensify its research efforts," Busquin said. The report estimates that if nuclear and renewable energies were implemented on a larger scale, the costs incurred in order to meet Kyoto targets could be reduced by 30%.
However, by 2030, nuclear and renewable energies will represent less than 20% of EU energy supply, the report notes. In an effort, to turn this figure around, "the new EU framework program for research is driving forward initiatives focusing on renewable energy sources, fuel cells, and hydrogen technologies," said Busquin.
