Mere coincidence can be distinctly instructive.
While the New York attorney general’s office argued a shareholder fraud lawsuit against ExxonMobil, riots were rocking Santiago, Chile.
Connecting the events are heavy-handedness with climate change.
The state of New York says ExxonMobil doesn’t adequately account for future regulation related to climate.
The case assumes strict regulation will seriously devalue oil and gas assets and concludes shareholders should know the risk so they can dump their holdings.
The argument comes directly from climate activists, who try to make political ambitions come true by insisting they already are.
They want governments to tax affordable energy into disuse while lavishing incentives on costlier alternatives like solar power and wind.
But governments trying to oblige usually encounter backlash and moderate or scrap the effort.
Chile is the most recent example. Protests erupted on Oct. 25 in response to mass transit fare hikes.
Some observers blame the increase on rising oil prices. But oil prices are falling.
Fares increased because Metro de Santiago converted its subway system, Latin America’s second largest behind Mexico City, to renewable energy, mostly solar and wind.
Yes, the protests derive momentum from social tension born of income inequality. But costs stemming from the forced use of expensive energy provided the initial shove.
The Chilean protests also coincide with the approach of an international climate summit.
The UN’s 25th Conference of the Parties, addressing implementation of state and environmental activism embodied in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, was to have been held Dec. 2-13 in Santiago.
Because of the protests, the Chilean government withdrew the welcome.
COP25 originally was to have been held in Brazil. But the government there abdicated after Brazilians elected a president loath to impose the economic pain of climate mitigation.
Events increasingly indicate that assumptions made now about future climate regulation will prove to have been exaggerated. New York lawyers arguing otherwise aren’t paying attention.
In climate politics, they should see, exaggeration is everything.
(From the subscription area of www.ogj.com, posted Nov. 1, 2019. To comment, join the Commentary channel at www.ogj.com/oilandgascommunity.)