US crude oil production is expected to reach about 14 million b/d by end-2024, according to a recent report from Macquarie Group Ltd. The projections include a slight downward adjustment in the shale outlook offset by anticipated Gulf of Mexico strength. Macquarie analysts foresee a further increase to around 14.5 million b/d by end-2025, despite the expectation for significantly lower crude prices in the year.
“For 2024, we believe headwinds to shale growth, namely industrial friction from a wave of acquisitions and apparently subdued public company guidance, are well understood,” the report said.
“Yet, the shale landscape is not bereft of potential growth drivers in 2024, amidst ongoing cost deflation and the potential for counter-cyclical efficiency/productivity gains.”
Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “should shale growth disappoint this year,” they would “resist the urge to extrapolate that performance to 2025 and beyond.”
“Ultimately, this year’s headwinds could flip to tailwinds in a scenario where the growth impulse from private companies recharges and public companies attack high-graded resource bases next year.”
In a separate report on Mar. 4, Macquarie analysts expressed a keen awareness of the potential for productivity and efficiency gains to bolster shale growth in 2024.
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that US crude oil production will average 13.19 million b/d overall in 2024 and 13.65 million b/d in 2025.
