Raymond James & Associates revised its US rig count forecast, noting it expects a 2016 recovery will be disproportionately weighed toward horizontal drilling units in three shale plays: the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken.
The first-quarter 2015 weekly rig count decline averaged 65 rigs/week compared with the 2008-09 downturn when the pace of rig count declines averaged 55 rigs/week at its steepest point.
In an Apr. 13 Industry Brief, RJA forecast the 2015 rig count will hit bottom at 930 rigs in June with the horizontal rig count forecast to hit bottom at 703 rigs. The new RJA forecast has the rig count bottoming 8 months sooner than analysts previously suggested.
"We think the first half 2015 downward correction was too much, too fast relative to what was needed to rebalance the system," analyst J. Marshall Adkins said. "That means we expect the rig count to gradually rebound in the second half of 2015 and continue to grow throughout 2016."
The forecast calls for the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken to account for 47% of 342 total rigs that RJA anticipated to be added during the third quarter 2015 through December 2016. Out of the 47%, RJA expects 30% will go to the Permian.