U.K. North Sea oil production could fall as low as 1.71 million b/d this summer because of planned shut-ins to install emergency shutdown valves (ESVS) to comply with government regulations.
A study of planned transportation shutdowns in the area by County Natwest Woodmac, Edinburgh, Scotland, shows that the low point of 1.71 million b/d will occur in the third quarter.
The third quarter decline will cut overall production in 1990 to about 2.01 million b/d. Woodmac previously forecast 1990 production at 2.3 million b/d.
Last summer's extended shutdown reduced 1989 average production to 1.83 million b/d. Present production is 1.9-2 million b/d.
Woodmac's study showed that in the third quarter the Ninian pipeline and the Beryl production system will be shut down at the same time and Brent system throughput significantly curtailed.
In the fourth quarter Forties pipeline will shut down to allow ESV installation on Forties Charlie platform and tie in of a new 36 in. pipeline to Cruden Bay, Scotland.
Once all the work is complete, U.K. production should rise to 2.35 million b/d in December 1990.
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