As U.S. gasoline consumers begin to feel what budget balancing is all about, oil producers and refiners should note a lesson manifest in recent events on two sides of the Atlantic: the perishability of national leadership.
On one side, Margaret Thatcher lost her job as British prime minister because her Conservative colleagues, in numbers still uncertain, feared they could not win the next general election with her as party leader. Why?
An often brusque resistance to strengthened European alliances-the usual explanation for her downfall-certainly put the prime minister at odds with many members of Parliament and, no doubt, some voters. What Conservatives read as general voter discontent, however, probably stemmed more from Mrs. Thatcher's association with a "poll tax" imposed with the U.K. economy weakening and the inflation rate approaching 11 %.
AN UNPOPULAR TAX
Voters turn fickle when they think they've had their pockets picked. Last March some rioted in London over the new levy; last month Mrs. Thatcher repaired to the back bench. The poll tax alone didn't bring down Britain's strongest prime minister since Winston Churchill. It nevertheless helped crack the foundation of her political support and, eventually, her ability to lead.
On the other side of the Atlantic an American version of this process may be at work. President Bush faces a worldwide test of confidence. He must lead the troops and coalition of nations aligned in Saudi Arabia against Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Yet confidence in him is wavering at home.
Congressional Democrats have begun second-guessing the administration over the Middle East mission. However sincere the concerns may be, it's too late publicly to ask whether and when the U.S. should attack Iraqi troops. Saddam Hussein needs to know he faces a serious threat. Yet he seems to think Bush is bluffing. Doubt-mongering does nothing to change the perception.
Congress wouldn't be playing this dangerous game if Bush still possessed the wholesale public support he enjoyed early in the crisis. But time has eroded public resolve. Moreover, Americans may have lost a degree of confidence in their president for reasons akin to those contributing to Mrs. Thatcher's political fall.
Candidate Bush unequivocally opposed higher taxes. President Bush supported a tax hike and called it the best he could get from Congress. That's not the type of leadership people follow into poisonous smoke.
The Middle East crisis will end peacefully only if Saddam Hussein comes to believe George Bush means what he says. For that to happen, Americans must share the belief and persuade their elected representatives to act on it. Yet at service stations Dec. 1 they received a 5/gal reminder that what Bush says isn't necessarily so.
FOUNDATION CRACKS
Submission on taxes cracked the foundation of Bush's leadership, just as the British poll tax set forces aswirl that helped topple Mrs. Thatcher. But this crack mustn't grow. The world has too much at stake. Bush needs to silence the nagging. In the apocalyptic terms Saddam Hussein understands, Bush must articulate some vision of a stable, peaceful Middle East. He must assert total American commitment to that goal. He must promise that, as commander-in-chief of U.S. forces, he'll do whatever he must to fulfill the mission. And that's all. Let Saddam Hussein and the doubters wonder what comes next-and when.
The oil industry should do what it can to help the world forget Bush's past capitulations. The world needs a reminder that he can lead.
Copyright 1990 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.