Oil flow in the Soviet Union's most prolific producing area, western Siberia's Tyumen province, apparently has plummeted to a level not seen since the early 1980s.
There is no sign of an early rebound.
Instead, Soviet officials are concerned that strike sentiment among Tyumen oil workers, which has been growing since last summer, may soon cause widespread work stoppages. If that happens, the U.S.S.R.'s 1990 oil flow could fall faster than production in the U.S.
OIL PRODUCTION
The Soviets have not issued official figures for first quarter 1990 crude and condensate production. But some western observers believe it sometimes dropped to 11.9 million b/d or less.
If so, the Soviet Union's oil flow is already about 500,000 b/d below the level of the same 1989 period.
Tyumen province averaged more than 7.3 million b/d in 1983. One Soviet report indicates Tyumen's first quarter 1990 crude/condensate flow fell to about that mark.
By comparison, Tyumen oil production averaged 7.54 million b/d in 1986, 7.96 million b/d in 1987, and 8.08 million b/d in 1988.
The Moscow newspaper Izvestia said late last month that crude/condensate flow in the huge Khanty-Mansiisk Autonomous District, which accounts for more than 95% of Tyumen province production, was averaging only 7 million b/d. It added that the district in the recent past provided 60% of Soviet oil production.
If the district is currently producing 60% of the U.S.S.R.'s oil, nationwide flow would be less than 11.9 million b/d.
CONDITIONS TENSE
Khanty-Mansiisk officials described conditions in Tyumen province as "tense, alarming, critical, and tragic."
Izvestia said the Tyumen oil boom of 1964-88 was achieved with such a disregard for human welfare and the environment that it had created a "charge of dynamite" in the province. If this charge is set off by strikes, the newspaper warned, the results could be disastrous to the entire Soviet economy.
Western Siberia's oil reserves will last for "several decades," Izvestia declared. But it reported that Soviet officials are developing plans calling for considerably smaller Tyumen crude/condensate production than was proposed only a few years ago for the 1990s.
Tyumen oil workers are angry over Moscow's continued lack of attention to their intolerable living conditions. They object to having all revenues from export of the province's oil going to Moscow, which then returns only a pittance to Tyumen.
WHAT WORKERS WANT
Tyumen's petroleum industry workers want privileges similar to those given last year to striking coal miners. They also demand that construction personnel not be withdrawn from the province, as Soviet officials proposed, but remain to build housing and other "social facilities."
Moscow News said Tyumen oil workers agree that if the Soviet government can't meet their demands for better housing, more food and consumer goods, and other amenities, 10-15% of the province's oil and gas output could be sold domestically and abroad at negotiated prices without paying anything into the national treasury. The revenue would go directly to Tyumen organizations to buy more food and manufactured goods, to compensate for rising costs of petroleum equipment, for development of the province's industry, and for other projects.
Tyumen oil and gas personnel set a deadline of Apr. 1 for the Moscow press to publish their demands. Otherwise, Moscow News declared, the province's workers are prepared to walk off their jobs.
Izvestia said the U.S.S.R.'s State Planning Committee (Gosplan) in mid-March either turned down Tyumen workers' demand or waffled on the matter. It added that the temporary bureau of the Tyumen Communist party's provincial committee awaited "a clear and precise response from the government of the U.S.S.R."
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