Watching Government: Change in Saudi Arabia?

June 15, 2015
International observers are still considering the extent, if any, of changes since Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud became Saudi Arabia's king in January. Most aren't ready to issue declarations just yet.

International observers are still considering the extent, if any, of changes since Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud became Saudi Arabia's king in January. Most aren't ready to issue declarations just yet.

"We've done about as well understanding these shifts over the years as people normally do picking a fantasy football team," observed Anthony Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Other speakers at the Atlantic Council (AC)'s May 29 discussion of Saudi Leadership Changes' Implications for Stability and Energy Markets quickly mentioned the kingdom's ongoing confrontations of traditions with demands for change.

Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi remains Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister but would like to retire and probably will be replaced, suggested Jean-Francois Seznec, a visiting associate professor at Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies.

One of the king's sons, Prince Abdul Aziz, is deputy minister. "Nothing much has changed. I don't expect policy to change much either," Seznec said. National oil company Saudi Aramco may be a different story since it's "totally technocratic with a supreme council that handles decisions, although that's not very new," he said. Aramco's Chief Executive Amin H. Nasser handles day-to-day decisions.

Seznec said Aramco's biggest change the past few years has been its movement into chemicals, previously the province of Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (Sabic), and making it look less like a national oil company and more like ExxonMobil Corp. One question the next few months may be whether Aramco's chemical operations will shift to Sabic or be allowed to grow, he suggested.

Francis Ricciardone, vice-president and director of the AC's Rafik Harin Center for the Middle East, said during his recent visit to Saudi Arabia, "What I saw was counter to my prejudices which portray the country as most resistant to change."

'Law of the few'

Good diplomats and business executives consider not just threats, but also opportunities, in countries like Saudi Arabia, Ricciardone said. "It's the law of the few," he said. "Not many are needed to get things going. By the time it becomes the majority, a new idea is well under way."

Ricciardone said the question of whether a positive tipping point has been reached applies not just to Saudi Arabia, but the whole region. "The conversations were exciting," he told the AC audience. "The young Saudis I heard were fired up. They feel empowered to do something."

He considers it significant that most of the young Saudis who have studied in Europe and the US, where they have been exposed to different cultures, have then returned home where many quietly work for reform.