TAEP: Year of 'dramatic contraction' under way in Texas oil, gas employment

March 23, 2015
The Texas Petro Index (TPI) dropped seven points to 299.6 during January compared with December, reflecting low crude oil prices, a falling rig count, and decline in drilling permits.

The Texas Petro Index (TPI) dropped seven points to 299.6 during January compared with December, reflecting low crude oil prices, a falling rig count, and decline in drilling permits.

Before the current downturn, the TPI, a composite index based on a comprehensive group of upstream economic indicators released by the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers (TAEP), peaked at a record 310.5 in November, the zenith of an economic expansion that began in December 2009 when the TPI stood at 187.7.

Average crude oil prices in January declined 55% to $44.46/bbl compared with June 2014 (OGJ Online, July 24, 2014).

Industry employment has now entered a state of decline, the index indicates, as companies begin to shed jobs to deal with the current climate. Total oil and gas employment declined by 3,300 jobs in January from 305,000 in December.

Contraction only beginning

"Several thousand jobs were lopped off the original industry employment estimates for the latter part of 2014, and it now seems likely that upstream oil and gas payroll employment in Texas peaked in December at about 305,000 jobs," explained said Karr Ingham, economist and TPI creator.

"The January monthly decline very likely represents the onset of industry employment contraction on the way to what will ultimately be tens of thousands of jobs lost," he said.

Despite the tumultuous second half of 2014, however, the industry still added 25,000 jobs in Texas during the year, lifting total upstream employment to more than 300,000 for the first time.

"But for now that run is over, and 2015 will be a year of dramatic contraction in Texas oil and gas employment," Ingham stated.

Noting that leading indicators of the upstream industry's economic health continue to decline, Ingham cautioned that the economic contraction gripping oil and gas exploration and development still is in its early stages.

"These trends will continue for months to come, and we should be prepared to settle in for a fairly long period of downturn before the industry begins to recover," he said. "Now that this process has been set into motion, there is no stopping it until the events driving it have played out."

TPI indicators for January

Up 7.2% from January 2014, the number of Texans on oil and gas industry payrolls totaled 301,700, according to statistical methods based on Texas Workforce Commission estimates. Average upstream oil and gas employment in Texas peaked in December at 305,000, increasing steadily from a nadir of 175,700 in October 2009.

Crude production in Texas during January totaled 102.1 million bbl, 20.3% more than in January 2014. With crude prices in January averaging $44.46/bbl, the value of Texas-produced crude oil totaled $4.54 billion, 41.4% less than in January 2014.

Estimated Texas natural gas output was 687.4 bcf, a slight year-over-year monthly decline of 0.1%. With natural gas prices in November averaging $2.93/Mcf, the value of Texas-produced gas declined 36% to $2 billion.

The Baker Hughes Inc. count of active drilling rigs in Texas averaged 773, 7.5% fewer than in January 2014. Drilling activity in Texas peaked in September 2008 at a monthly average of 946 rigs before falling to a trough of 329 in June 2009.

During the economic expansion that began in December 2009, the statewide average monthly rig count peaked at 932 in May and June 2012.