It used to be said the world's supplies of crude would be strained and oil prices would soar if every adult in China were to acquire a simple moped vehicle. Now it is reported by IHS Automotive, part of IHS Inc., China alone produced 18.2 million cars and light-duty trucks last year, almost as many as the US and Japan combined.
World production of cars hit a record 66.7 million in 2012, up from 62.6 million in 2011. This year it may climb to 68.13 million, said analysts with Worldwatch Institute, an organization dealing with environmental concerns. Include light-duty trucks, and the counts rise to 81.5 million last year and 83.3 million in 2013.
China, the US, Japan, and Germany produced 53% of all passenger cars and light trucks last year, while the top 10 auto-manufacturing countries accounted for 76%. Among those countries, German and South Korean production declined slightly, but production increased from India, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, and Thailand. "These trends may be good news for the automobile industry, which now sells a third more vehicles than just 3 years ago. But the same trends magnify environmental challenges," said Michael Renner, senior researcher at Worldwatch.
World's cheapest car
Fuel efficiency standards have compelled manufacturers in developed countries to produce cleaner vehicles. But in 2009, Tata Motors in India began marketing the world's cheapest car, a four-door, five-seat automobile for $2,500. It came without radio, power steering, power windows, tachometer, air conditioning, or other such comforts, and its trunk couldn't hold much more than a briefcase. It had only one windshield wiper and an analog speedometer less accurate than the digital units of better cars.
Still, its cheap price tag was expected to put more cars on the road in a populous country with one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Sales lagged, however, falling 27% last year, and Tata revamped the vehicle with a more expensive model to hit the show rooms later this year.
Meanwhile, India, China, and governments around the globe have decreed lower vehicle emissions in coming decades. Worldwatch reported alternative vehicles, including hybrids and electric cars, are slowly increasing to reduce dependence on petroleum as well as air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions. Some 6.3 million hybrids were on the road earlier this year, it said. But electric cars accounted for a "miniscule 0.2%" of last year's car market.
Worldwatch projected demand for lithium-ion batteries in light-duty transportation will increase to $22 billion in 2020 from $1.6 billion in 2012. Those batteries are made from rare earth medals. Since the 1970s, China has worked to become the world's biggest supplier of rare earth minerals.
Road to happiness
The recent Independence Day holiday in the US prompted reflections on the history of this country that has always attracted people from other nations with the promise of a better life supported by the continent's vast resources, including cheap energy. Huge forests provided wood for home hearths through the late-1800s. Water mills powered early industrial growth. Coal became the dominant fuel during the industrial revolution, and the oil industry was born in 1859 in time to light lamps and provide heavy-duty lubricants for the Civil War. The automobile industry thrived on cheap, powerful, portable petroleum fuels, leading to freeways, suburbs, and our modern lifestyle.
Cheap energy has shaped and sustained our economy and culture for so long that US residents now consider it our birthright, with little thought as to the investments and tradeoffs it takes to provide instant power at a turn of a key or a flip of a light switch. If the Declaration of Independence were rewritten today, it likely would proclaim the right to life, liberty, and cheap energy with which to pursue happiness.
