Eric Watkins
Oil Diplomacy Editor
South Sudan this week becomes an independent state, a matter of more than passing interest to China—the largest buyer of Sudan's oil.
That emerged on the diplomatic front last week as Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir failed to show for a meeting in Beijing with China's President Hu Jintao—a no-show of considerable interest.
Sudan's foreign ministry said al-Bashir's plane, enroute from Sudan to China, had been forced to land in Tehran after a change in his flight plan over Turkmenistan could not be accommodated. End of explanation.
Al-Bashir apparently had decided to stop in Tehran because of concerns that his flight path would take him over countries—Pakistan and Afghanistan—that could force his jet to land in the Hague.
Arrest al-Bashir
Human rights groups were demanding that China refuse al-Bashir entry or hand him over to the International Criminal Court in the Hague, which issued an arrest warrant for him on charges of genocide in Sudan's Darfur region.
A Chinese spokesperson said Beijing was looking forward to the visit as an opportunity to discuss "the North-South peace process and Darfur issue" and that, "China would like to play a positive role in promoting Sudan's peace and reconciliation."
No surprise there. After all, China gets most of its Sudanese oil from fields in the south and—here's the key point—China gets 100% of its Sudanese oil through the 1,600-km Greater Nile Oil Pipeline (GNOP).
That's the pipeline that al-Bashir earlier threatened, saying that southerners "have one of three options: either we share the oil, or they pay fees and taxes for every single barrel that passes through the north, or we will shut down the pipeline."
Pipeline agreement?
Perhaps al-Bashir didn't consider the effect of such a threat on China, but it's the last thing that Beijing wants to hear from Sudan. Little wonder that China's leadership was eager to talk with him and straighten things out.
As it turns out, al-Bashir was able to take a later flight out of Tehran. But his time on the tarmac in Tehran perhaps gave everyone concerned plenty of time to think things through.
The thing to think about is just how long the tenuous peace will last between North and South Sudan, and how long, in turn, any agreement over the GNOP.
The Chinese really have just a handful of options: build a new pipeline out of South Sudan or build a new pipeline out of South Sudan. If these options sound too limited, then here's a third: build a new pipeline out of South Sudan.
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