Special Report: Worldwide Gas Processing: Stability of LPG markets threatened by world events

June 6, 2011
LPG production in the US has been growing due to the exploitation of shale gas and oil plays, but global LPG markets have been tighter than expected.

Walt Hart
Ron Gist
Ken Otto
Purvin & Gertz Inc.
Houston

LPG production in the US has been growing due to the exploitation of shale gas and oil plays, but global LPG markets have been tighter than expected. This has created an unusual dynamic in which LPG prices in the US have been significantly lower than international prices, and arbitrage has resulted in record exports of propane from the US Gulf Coast.

Many factors have made the LPG market outside the US tight in 2010, including:

• Reductions in LNG production in Algeria resulted in a drop in LPG exports by Sonatrach.

• LPG terminal maintenance in the North Sea disrupted trade in Northwest Europe.

• LPG exports from Venezuela have been falling for several years.

• LPG production from sub-Saharan Africa increased in 2010 but was still short of the region’s potential.

Market dislocations were not limited to the Atlantic Basin. For example, Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co. started up its butane-fed olefins cracker at the end of July 2010, and Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, continued its efforts to convert residential kerosine users to LPG as their primary fuel for cooking.

Global events in 2011 have threatened the stability of the global LPG market. Ongoing public protests in the Middle East and North Africa have resulted in a civil war in Libya, government changes in Egypt and Tunisia, and scores of deaths in other countries, especially Syria and Libya. Japan’s earthquake and resulting tsunami have created demand uncertainty in the world’s largest LPG importing country.

This article reviews the major forces that have recently affected global LPG supply, demand, and trade, and presents the Purvin & Gertz outlook for LPG markets through 2014.

Global LPG supply

Global LPG supply decreased by 1.1 million tonnes in 2009 relative to 2008. This was the first drop in production in more than 25 years. In 2010 production rebounded by nearly 6.2 million tonnes to about 241 million tonnes worldwide.

Globally, about 41% of LPG supply is a by-product of crude oil refining. Around 24% of LPG supply is recovered from natural gas that is associated with crude oil production. Nearly 35% of global LPG supply is produced from natural gas that is not associated with oil production. Relatively small amounts of LPG are by-products of gas-to-liquids (GTL) and other Fischer-Tropsch processes. Consequently, nearly all LPG is generated as a by-product, and no commercial quantities of LPG are currently produced intentionally.

There is some interest in production of bio-LPG, particularly in Europe. At the moment, the only significant potential production of bio-LPG is as a minor by-product of biomass-to-liquids (BTL) projects. Large-scale commercial production of bio-LPG is unlikely in the forecast period.

Nearly all of the global LPG supply reduction in 2009 can be attributed to lower refinery LPG production—a consequence of the recession that reduced demand for refined petroleum products. Supply from natural gas was nearly flat to 2008. The rebound in 2010, however, was due to gains in both refinery and natural gas sources. LPG production from refineries rose by about 1.8%, while LPG stripped from natural gas increased by about 3.2%.

In the near future, Purvin & Gertz expects that LPG supply should increase to 275 million tonnes by 2014 from about 241 million tonnes in 2010 (Fig. 1). Although LPG supplies from refineries should increase during the period, nearly 75% of the LPG increase is likely to come from the processing of natural gas.

Global LPG demand

Because LPG is a by-product of other processes, there is little ability to adjust LPG production to changes in demand. LPG storage is limited in most regions of the world. Consequently, prices can change rapidly in response to supply length or dearth. Arbitrage helps to make regional supply adjustments, but when global LPG supply length occurs (either seasonally or structurally), a demand response is needed to consume surplus LPG supplies.

This demand response comes from the petrochemical industry, which can quickly substitute relatively large amounts of LPG for other chemical feedstocks and is therefore highly sensitive to LPG pricing. This price-sensitive LPG demand accounts for about 3-7% of global LPG demand in a typical year.

Most LPG demand that is relatively insensitive to price comprises base or premium demand. Fig. 2 shows total global LPG demand by market sector. Slightly more than half of global LPG demand comes from residential and commercial markets for heating and cooking in homes and businesses. Nearly 20% is chemical feedstock in applications that are not price-sensitive. The industrial market consumes about 9% of total LPG demand.

Another 9% of LPG becomes engine fuel (autogas), which excludes butanes used by the refining industry for gasoline blendstock and alkylation (5%). The remaining uses for LPG include agricultural applications and the manufacture of synthetic natural gas.

In 2010, base demand increased by about 3.1% to 231 million tonnes vs. 2009, but total supply only increased by 2.6%. Price-sensitive demand decreased in 2010, since more LPG was required to satisfy base demand. Total demand was about 240 million tonnes in 2010.

For 2010-14, Purvin & Gertz expects that additions to LPG supply will outpace the growth in base demand, thus requiring more surplus LPG to be absorbed by the petrochemical industry. Total LPG supply will likely grow by nearly 3.4%/year through 2014, but LPG base demand is likely to grow at only a 3.0%/year in the same period. Total demand should reach about 260 million tonnes by 2014.

The following section details the regional LPG markets; Fig. 3 shows LPG demand by region. All supply, demand, and trade information in this article is based on Purvin & Gertz’s proprietary data.

US, Canada

The biggest NGL story in the US and Canada remains the impact of the exploitation of the shale plays (see accompanying sidebar). The ability to extract natural gas and oil from shale and other source rocks has transformed the outlook for NGL production in the region from that of steady decline to an overall increase for the long term.

Despite the upward trends in LPG production related to shales in the US, overall LPG production in the US and Canada region declined by about 2.5% 2009-10 to about 55 million tonnes. There is currently little LPG production from shales in Canada, and gas production from conventional sources is in a structural decline. Refinery operating rates in both the US and Canada were lower in 2010, resulting in reduced production of by-product LPG.

Even with the 2010 dip in production, the region consisting of the US and Canada remained the largest LPG producing region in the world, with about 23% of global supply. Natural gas processing is responsible for about 62% of the total regional LPG production, and the proportion of gas-based production should grow over the long term.

LPG production in the US and Canada should increase to about 57.7 million tonnes in 2014, driven by shale-related production in the US and an increase in refinery production in the region as the economy improves.

The US-Canada region has traditionally been a net importer of LPG, but the region was a slight net exporter in both 2009 and 2010. As a whole, the region has LPG production in excess of its base demand, but the US has historically imported propane on the East Coast to meet winter heating demand and opportunistically on the Gulf Coast to meet price-sensitive petrochemical demand. Canada is long on LPG and exports all surpluses to the US, but the Canadian surplus has dropped steadily from about 5.7 million tonnes in 2002 to only 2.2 million tonnes in 2010 as a result of reduced conventional natural gas production.

The US exported propane at record rates in 2009-10. Propane supply has not declined due to production related to shale gas. Propane demand from the petrochemical industry has weakened, as ethane has been preferred for olefins cracking. Meanwhile, relatively tight propane supply in the Atlantic Basin has kept international propane prices higher than in the US, resulting in an open arbitrage. These trends have continued into 2011, and exports from the US are likely to be high through at least the end of the year.

LPG base demand in the US and Canada dropped to about 50.9 million tonnes in 2010 from 51.8 million tonnes in 2009. Price-sensitive demand dropped by about 0.1 million tonnes to 3.9 million tonnes, which is the lowest level since 2004. With the recovery of the economy, Purvin & Gertz expects that base demand in the region will rebound to about 55.4 million tonnes by 2014. Price-sensitive demand is also likely to grow as supply increases outside the US and Canada.

Middle East

The Middle East is the world’s largest LPG exporting region and the second largest LPG producer after the US-Canada. The Middle East produced about 51.9 million tonnes of LPG in 2010, which was nearly 22% of global production. Net exports were about 28.7 million tonnes. In the Middle East, about 75% of LPG production comes from associated gas and refineries.

LPG production in the Middle East increased by about 12.6% in 2010, following a 3.5% drop in 2009 related to OPEC reductions in crude oil production. Saudi Arabia is by far the largest producer in the region, with about 21.0 million tonnes of LPG production in 2010. Saudi Arabia is also the largest exporter with around 8.8 million tonnes shipped in 2010, but Qatar is now a close second at about 8.2 million tonnes.

Future LPG production and exports depend on the progress of projects that produce LPG as a by-product. Many projects have fallen behind announced schedules. Nevertheless, LPG production has been surging in Qatar due to several natural gas projects, and projects in the UAE should continue to increase LPG production there. Production has also been increasing in Iran, but Iranian LPG production fell behind both Qatar and the UAE in 2010.

LPG production in the Middle East should reach about 67.7 million tonnes by 2014, making the Middle East the largest production region in the world. This forecast assumes that civil unrest in the Middle East does not significantly disrupt LPG production. Thus far, the impact of the protests and government changes in the Middle East on LPG production has been small.

Although there have been government changes reported for Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, Oman, and Syria, these countries are small LPG producers. There have also been protests in major LPG producing countries such as Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Because supply cuts in the major LPG exporting countries could seriously disrupt LPG trade and pricing, political developments in the Middle East and Africa should be watched closely.

LPG demand in the Middle East continued to grow in 2010, with the largest increase occurring for base petrochemical demand, at nearly 23%. Total Middle East LPG demand was about 23.1 million tonnes, of which the petrochemical and residential-commercial markets comprised 58% and 40%, respectively. Purvin & Gertz expects LPG demand in the Middle East to grow to about 30.4 million tonnes by 2014.

As the Middle East has only limited untapped sources of ethane for additional ethylene crackers, the use of LPG in olefins crackers has been increasing. As a case in point, the opening of the Kayan cracker in second-half 2010 temporarily tightened butane markets. Petrochemical demand for LPG should continue to outpace all other consuming markets in the Middle East in the forecast period.

Africa

Africa stands out as the world’s second largest net exporting region after the Middle East. LPG production stood at about 16.9 million tonnes in 2010. Revised production figures indicate that LPG production has been rather stagnant at between 16 and 17 million tonnes/year (tpy) 2007-10, as declining production in Algeria has been mostly offset by increases in Nigeria. Demand in Africa increased by about 1.0 million tonnes over the same period to about 11.2 million tonnes, resulting in declining net exports.

As in the Middle East, African LPG production has been threatened by civil unrest. New governments have taken over in Egypt and Tunisia, and Libya is in the midst of a civil war. Major protests took place in Algeria, and Nigeria has long been disrupted by attacks on oil and gas infrastructure.

Egypt is a major LPG producer (2.1 million tonnes in 2010) but is also a major LPG importer, at about 2.3 million tonnes in 2010. Tunisia is a small producer that is also net short of LPG. Only minor disruptions in LPG trade have been reported for Egypt and Tunisia. Protests in Algeria are a major concern for the LPG industry, as Algeria is the world’s second largest LPG exporter at about 6.8 million tonnes in 2010.

Libya produced about 1.0 million tonnes of LPG in 2010 and exported about 0.4 million tonnes. About 63% of Libyan production is from gas processing while the balance is from refineries. The Libyan civil war has reportedly disrupted crude oil production and exports. It is likely that Libyan LPG exports will be lost for much of the forecast period.

Assuming minimal disruption in LPG production in North Africa and continued progress on supply projects, Purvin & Gertz expects that African LPG production should reach about 21.8 million tonnes by 2014. It should be apparent, however, that there is considerable uncertainty in this forecast.

About 85% of African LPG demand is concentrated on the northern coast, and 95% of LPG is consumed by the residential-commercial markets. With local LPG production, a very large population and very low per-capita residential-commercial consumption, sub-Saharan Africa may seem like an ideal venue for LPG demand growth. Further, the Nigerian government has required that a portion of LPG production be dedicated to local supply. Infrastructure development and affordability, however, will continue to be issues.

Purvin & Gertz forecasts that LPG demand in Africa should grow by 1.5 million tonnes to about 12.7 million tonnes in 2014. Given our supply projection, net exports could increase by about 3.4 million tonnes to 9.1 million tonnes by 2014.

Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia is a remarkably diverse market for LPG. It contains the world’s largest LPG importer (Japan), the world’s largest residential-commercial consumer (China), and the world’s largest autogas market (South Korea). Nearly 100% of LPG production in northeast Asia is from refineries, as there is very little wet-gas production.

LPG production in northeast Asia decreased in 2009 to 25.8 million tonnes due to the recession but rebounded in 2010 to 27.1 million tonnes. China produced about 69% of the LPG in the region in 2010, and nearly all of the region’s production growth was in China.

Base demand in northeast Asia increased by 1.9% 2009-10 driven mainly by an increase in residential-commercial demand and a rebound in industrial demand after the recession. China’s base demand surpassed Japan’s in 2006 and accounts for about 44% of the 2010 regional total of 47.3 million tonnes.

How the earthquake and consequent tsunami in Japan have affected its LPG market remains uncertain. It is clear that much onshore infrastructure has been destroyed in areas nearest the quake’s epicenter. Industry sources reportedly estimated that half of the residential-commercial demand in the affected area was lost; however, utility company TEPCO purchased additional LPG cargoes for use in electricity generation. We expect that Japan’s LPG demand will be slightly reduced for 2011 due to the tsunami.

Purvin & Gertz expects regional base demand to increase to 52.3 million tonnes from 47.3 million tonnes 2010-14. More than half of the increase should come from residential-commercial and industrial demand in China, but we also expect large increases from natural gas enrichment in Japan and autogas use in South Korea and China.

Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all have olefins crackers that can substitute LPG for naphtha, and the region has added feedstock flexibility during the past 5 years. Price-sensitive demand dropped by about 10% in 2010 due mainly to tightness in the butane market, but we expect substitution of LPG for naphtha to increase to 3.5 million tonnes from about 2.4 million tonnes by 2014.

All countries in northeast Asia are net LPG importers, although most of Taiwan’s imports satisfy price-sensitive demand. Chinese LPG imports decreased to 1.9 million tonnes in 2008 from 6.1 million tonnes in 2005 as growth in refinery LPG production outpaced residential-commercial demand. Despite a spike in imports during the recession due to reduced refinery utilization, it is likely that LPG imports to China will continue to erode through 2014. We project that imports for northeast Asia will increase by only about 1.8 million tonnes in the forecast period.

Latin America

LPG production in Latin America (including Mexico and the Caribbean) was about 25.0 million tonnes in 2010, up about 1.7% compared with 2009. Gas processing accounted for about 63% of LPG production. Brazil and Mexico produced about 6.6 and 6.4 million tonnes of LPG in 2010, respectively, or a total of 52% of Latin American LPG production.

LPG production in Mexico has generally been declining since 2004, while a steady increase in Brazil has nearly offset Mexico’s decline. Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, and Trinidad are also major LPG producers in the region, comprising another 38% of indigenous LPG supply.

Purvin & Gertz expects LPG production in Latin America to climb to about 27.3 million tonnes by 2014, with the largest production gains in Colombia, Brazil, and Peru. Colombia plans expansions in both gas processing and refinery capacity that could significantly add to LPG production by 2014. Colombia is currently a slight net exporter of LPG.

In 2010, demand in Latin America was about 29.1 million tonnes, up from 28.6 million tonnes in 2009. Within the region, about 76% of the LPG is used in the residential-commercial sector. At 62 kg/person of residential-commercial LPG consumption, Mexico remains among the top per-capita LPG consumers in the world.

Ecuador’s reported per-capita consumption is also high (65 kg/person). Highly subsidized, LPG in Ecuador sells for 11¢/kg for the residential market, which is among the cheapest LPG in the world. Reported residential-commercial demand is slightly less than 1 million tpy but growing quickly, and it is likely that a large portion of this residential LPG is finding its way to other markets and countries.

Purvin & Gertz expects that LPG demand will grow to about 30.9 million tonnes in Latin America by 2014. Brazil will likely have the highest volume of LPG demand growth in the region, increasing to 8.3 million tonnes from 7.9 million tonnes 2010-14.

The Latin America region was net short by about 4.1 million tonnes of LPG in 2010, but several countries have surplus LPG. Major LPG exporters within Latin America include Argentina, Venezuela, Trinidad, and Peru. Trinidad and Peru have recently completed expansion projects that have increased LPG supply. Government controls, however, have discouraged production growth in Argentina, and LPG exports from Venezuela have declined since the PDVSA strike in 2002.

By 2014, we expect the largest LPG exporters in Latin America to be Argentina, Trinidad, and Colombia. Mexico and Brazil are likely to remain the largest net importers.

Europe, CIS

Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) jointly produced about 39.8 million tonnes of LPG in 2010. Except for the North Sea area, LPG production in Europe is nearly all from refineries. The supply situation is nearly the opposite in the CIS where about 80% of production is from natural gas processing.

LPG production in the Europe-CIS combined region declined by about 1.0 million tonnes from 2009 to 2010. The CIS LPG production was up slightly, but LPG production in Europe declined due to the effects of the recession on refinery production as well as a decline from the North Sea. In the future, we expect joint production from these combined regions to increase modestly to 40.2 million tonnes by 2014, as LPG production in the CIS should more than offset continued declines in the North Sea.

Base demand for LPG in the combined Europe-CIS region was about 39.2 million tonnes in 2010. Residential-commercial demand comprises about 39% of the regional total but varies by subregion. Nearly half of the LPG demand in southern Europe is residential-commercial, while the same end-use sector consumes less than a quarter of the LPG demand in northern Europe. Engine fuel is the second largest demand category in the Europe-CIS combined region at about 22% of regional demand. Russia, Poland, Turkey, and Italy are all in the top 10 autogas consumers globally.

The Europe-CIS region has both base chemical demand and price-sensitive demand. Chemical demand comprised nearly 20% of base demand in 2010, and base chemical demand was nearly flat to 2009. In contrast, price-sensitive demand fell by more than 50% in 2010 due to high butane prices.

Purvin & Gertz expects base demand in the region to rise to 41.7 million tonnes by 2014, led by the chemical and engine-fuel markets. We also expect price-sensitive demand to rebound as global LPG supplies become more available and more cost competitive compared with naphtha. We project total LPG demand in the Europe-CIS region to increase to 46.6 million tonnes from 41.3 million tonnes in 2010-14.

The CIS is long LPG and exports to Europe via rail in the north and waterborne routes in the south. The North Sea LPG terminals export large quantities of LPG to Northwest Europe as well as the Mediterranean area. The Europe-CIS region as a whole, however, is still net short of LPG. The supply deficit was about 1.5 million tonnes in 2010 and will likely grow to about 6.4 million tonnes by 2014 due to a rebound in price-sensitive demand.

As noted previously, with supply from the North Sea declining, imports will increasingly come from elsewhere, particularly Africa. Waterborne imports could also increase from the US Gulf Coast and from Russia, if the Sibur Ust Luga terminal is completed by late 2013.

Indian subcontinent

On the Indian subcontinent, LPG production rose by about 0.3 million tonnes to 10.6 million tonnes in 2009-10. India’s market dominates the region, with around 94% of production and 92% of demand. More than 70% of LPG production is from refineries. Due to increasing refinery output, Purvin & Gertz expects regional LPG production to increase to about 11.9 million tonnes by 2014.

LPG demand in the Indian subcontinent has been outpacing supply and should continue to do so through 2014, thus requiring greater LPG imports. About 96% of the region’s total LPG consumption is residential-commercial demand. With a large, rapidly developing population and the lowest regional per-capita residential-commercial consumption of LPG in the world, the Indian subcontinent has great potential to expand LPG demand. Purvin & Gertz expects demand to grow to 16.9 million tonnes by 2014 from 14.2 million tonnes in 2010.

Southeast Asia, Pacific

Countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific (including Australia) produced about 14.1 million tonnes of LPG in 2010, an increase of 0.6 million tonnes compared with 2009. Nearly all of the increase came from natural gas processing. About 39% of 2010 LPG production in the region came from refineries. Australia is the largest producer in the region at 4.0 million tonnes in 2010, followed closely by Thailand at 3.8 million tonnes.

Purvin & Gertz projects that LPG production will grow in southeast Asia-Pacific to about 16.4 million tonnes by 2014. More than 80% of the LPG production growth should come from gas processing. Thailand and Indonesia will see the largest volume growth in the region through 2014.

About 70% of base demand in Southeast Asia is from the residential-commercial market. The Pacific subregion is dominated by the Australian market, which uses nearly 60% of its LPG for engine fuel. Base demand in the region in 2010 was about 16.1 million tonnes, and there was 0.2 million tonnes of price-sensitive demand in Singapore. As 2010 production was 14.1 million tonnes, the region as a whole is a net importer. Australia remains a major net exporter.

As recently as 2008, the region was a net exporter. The change was driven mainly by the Indonesian government’s program to convert residential consumers from kerosine to LPG, as well as increased use for chemical production in Thailand.

By 2014, we expect the net supply deficit to increase to nearly 4.0 million tonnes due mostly to continued demand increases from Indonesia and Thailand.

The authors
Walter M. Hart ([email protected]) is a managing consultant in the Houston office of Purvin & Gertz Inc. He joined the company in 2006. He worked 2 years at Owens Corning Fiberglas and 14 years at Union Carbide Corp. and Dow Chemical Co. He holds a BS (1986) in chemical engineering from Notre Dame, a PhD in chemical engineering from West Virginia University, and an MBA from the University of Charleston in West Virginia. Hart is a registered professional engineer in West Virginia and a member of GPA and AIChE.
Ronald L. Gist ([email protected]) is a managing consultant in the Houston office of Purvin & Gertz Inc., having joined the company in 1996. He began his career with EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. in 1971 after receiving both BS and MS degrees in chemical engineering from Colorado School of Mines. Gist has chaired GPA’s market information committee and served as 2009-10 chair of the Houston chapter of GPA.
Ken W. Otto ([email protected]) is a senior vice-president in the Houston office of Purvin & Gertz Inc. He joined EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. in 1977, then moved to Champlin Petroleum Co. in 1979 and served 4 years at Corpus Christi Petroleum Co. Otto joined Purvin & Gertz in 1986, was elected principal of the company in 1987, senior principal in 1990, and vice-president in 1997. He holds a BS (1977) in chemical engineering from the University of Texas at Austin.Correction

Fig. 6 of “US LNG exports will face stiff competition in medium term” (James Crandell, Biliana Pehlivanova, and Michael Zenker; OGJ, May 2, 2011, p. 84) was incorrectly drawn. Here is the corrected figure.

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