Arctic conferences point to 'cold war' over oil

Dec. 6, 2010
No matter how you look at it, the Arctic region is generally considered to be the new frontier for the oil and gas industry.

Eric Watkins
Oil Diplomacy Editor

No matter how you look at it, the Arctic region is generally considered to be the new frontier for the oil and gas industry. But even as countries line up to be first with exploratory activity, a host of concerns are to be negotiated. War is one, the environment is another.

"It is no coincidence that our strategic interest in the Arctic warms with its climate," said one of NATO's most senior commanders, US Adm. James Stavridis, the supreme allied commander for Europe.

"For now, the disputes in the north have been dealt with peacefully, but climate change could alter the equilibrium over the coming years in the race of temptation for exploitation of more readily accessible natural resources," Stavridis warned.

Stavridis' remarks came in the foreword to a paper published by the London-based Royal United Service Institute for Defence and Security Studies entitled "Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean: Promoting Co-operation and Preventing Conflict."

NATO UK workshop

Written by Prof. Paul Berkman of the Scott Polar Research Institute (SPRI) at the University of Cambridge, UK, the paper was published to coincide with a NATO Advanced Research Workshop called "Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean."

A number of diverse organizations, among them Shell International Exploration and Production and the World Wildlife Fund International Arctic Program, cosponsored NATO's workshop Oct. 13-15 at SPRI.

The workshop's stated goal was to "engage scientists, international law authorities and policymakers in characterizing environmental security risks in the Arctic Ocean."

The main specific objective was to "identify and assess environmental security risks against the background of international governance challenges in this globally relevant region."

The second main objective was to "consider opportunities and institutional options for cooperation, including perpetuating science as a tool of diplomacy, to resolve environmental security risks in the Arctic Ocean."

Peace not held as a common interest

Those objectives were made clear by Berkman, who stressed that national security policies are being declared and nuclear-capable states are adjusting their strategic deployments in the Arctic Ocean but that peace there has yet to be "explicitly established" as a common interest.

"Only after shared risk assessment and understanding of the appropriate responses will there be sufficient clarity about the governance paths to pursue within the international legal framework of the law of the sea," said Berkman.

Bringing together such diverse interests as represented by Shell and the WWF, as well as an unusual merging of military and scientific interests, the SPRI conference was, in the view of one observer, "an attempt to create a dialogue with Moscow aimed at averting a second cold war."

In fact, the SPRI conference came just weeks after a similar event held in Moscow hosted by Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and viewed by observers as the latest sign the Kremlin's "determination to establish itself as the dominant northern power."

Russian Arctic conference

In fact, the Sept. 22-23 meeting in Moscow was reported to be the first big international project of the Russian Geographical Society (RGS) since Putin last year installed himself as head of the organization's board of trustees.

At the same time, Putin also ensured that one of his close allies, Sergei Shoigu, the emergency situations minister, became president of the RGS.

The RGS conference, called "The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue," brought together members of the Arctic Council, comprised of Russia, the US, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden, along with numerous scientists and international polar experts to discuss the region's future.

What really is at stake?

The US Geological Survey estimated that the Arctic may contain at least 90 billion bbl of oil and up to 1.55 quadrillion cu m of gas, or a third of global undiscovered, potentially recoverable resources. The estimate, considered conservative because of sparse data in many areas, nevertheless represents quite a prize at any time, but especially in an era where so-called "peak oil" is said to be just around the corner.

Russia justified its conference with the claim that it was aiming to initiate dialogue that would facilitate a consensus on how to develop the Arctic's resources and avoid conflict over the emerging opportunities—and all the while preserving the region's fragile ecosystems.

Militarization the divisive issue

However, even as the two scientific bodies SPRI and RGS conducted their respective conferences, remarks by Berkman buttress the key underlying tension between them: militarization of the Arctic region.

"Though the Arctic Council (in collaboration with partner organizations, such as the International Arctic Science Committee) has produced many meaningful reports, the absence of the military dimensions of the Arctic have compromised its ability to consider holistic solutions," Berkman said.

But that is a view rejected by the Russians, and it is clear that a conference sponsored by NATO is unlikely to do much in the way of allaying Moscow's concerns, a point stressed by Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov just a week ahead of the RGS conference in Moscow.

"I do not think that NATO will do the right thing if it usurps the right to determine who can make decisions in the Arctic region and how," said Lavrov, echoing similar remarks made earlier by Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev: "We don't see, so far, how NATO can be useful in the Arctic."

Arctic 'cold war' emerges

The conflict between Russia and the West over militarization could not be more clearly defined, a point underlined by Stavridis, the NATO commander.

"Some may argue the Arctic should be completely free of military forces in order to preserve the goal of peace and universal utility to humankind, but I personally believe that the military has a rightful and necessary role in the high north," said Stavridis, ahead of the SPRI conference.

This conflict between Russia and the West over militarization in the region was aptly summed up by one industry observer: "If we didn't already have the phrase 'Cold War,' we'd have to invent it to describe the power struggle now taking place for Arctic Ocean resources."

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