If there is anything the oil and gas industry has learned in Romania recently, it's that Europe and Central Asia are determined to establish an energy bridge that bypasses Russia.
That was the resounding message that emerged from the Black Sea Energy & Economic Forum, organized in Bucharest over Sept. 30-Oct. 2 by the Atlantic Council.
The message was underscored by many speakers, but none more clearly than in a reminder by Fabrizio Barbaso, deputy director general, Directorate General for Transport and Energy, European Commission.
"The gas crisis in January 2009 between Ukraine and Russia was a painful reminder of the strategic importance of energy security to Europe," Barbaso said.
Real shock
"The crisis forced European citizens to suffer from the winter cold, and negatively impacted on our industrial output," Barbosa said, adding, "This came as a real shock for many Europeans."
As a result of that shock, Barbosa noted, "The 27 EU Heads of State meeting in the European Council in March 2009 underscored the urgency of clear guarantees from suppliers and transit countries that suppliers will not be interrupted."
In particular, Barbosa said, the 27 EU Heads of State "also vigorously stressed once more the importance of diversifying sources, fuels, and routes of energy supply."
Such diversification was largely diplomatic speak for the need to ensure that the EU does not fall prey to Russia when it comes to matters of energy.
"One of the EU's greatest challenges is to ensure that growing energy dependence does not become a risk to wider economic or international security," Barbosa said.
Russian incursion
Yet, even as the EU and the US develop an energy strategy that bypasses Russia, no one doubts the consequences of shutting the door completely on the Russians. Conference participants needed no reminder of Russia's incursion into Georgia last year, and its disruption of world energy supplies.
Richard Morningstar, US special envoy for Eurasian energy affairs, drew attention to the importance of Russia in the Black Sea and Caspian region, saying, "Russia will continue to be a major player in this region for the foreseeable future."
No less important, Morningstar sounded the diplomatic note: "It's in our interest for Russia to increase its oil and gas production, but that is not inconsistent with encouraging competition and diversification of pipeline routes."
In those few words, Morningstar summed up the new diplomatic dialogue that the West will attempt to develop with Russia: that no harm will come to Russia from the EU's diversification of fuels, suppliers, and routes.
In a word, the West is comfortable with Russia as "a" supplier, but not as "the" supplier. The question, however, is whether Russia can be equally comfortable with that formula.
The West's diplomats have their work cut out for them.
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