The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, standing by an earlier forecast, predicted that world oil demand will decline slightly in 2009 but will resume growing in 2010.
In its September report, OPEC said world oil demand in 2009 would contract by 1.56 million b/d to 84.05 million b/d. Last month, OPEC said that the contraction would be slightly larger at 1.65 million b/d for this year.
However, reiterating a figure it used in last month's report, the group said, "In 2010, global demand is forecast to return to growth following 2 years of consecutive declines, increasing 0.5 million b/d to stand at 84.6 million b/d."
According to OPEC, "The US is playing a significant role in world oil demand, showing a comeback and reducing the contraction from 0.7 million b/d in July to almost flat in August."
OPEC attributed the comeback in the US to "improved economic activity, summer driving consumption, and the low base in the same month of 2008."
It also said oil demand is strong in developing countries such as China, India, and the Middle East. It predicted that those same regions would remain the driving force behind world oil demand growth next year.
"As seen in recent years, most of the growth will take place in non-OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development], mainly China, India, the Middle East and Latin America," the OPEC report said.
It said that overall, "in anticipation of a slow economic recovery next year, world oil demand growth is expected at 500,000 b/d."
