If you simply look at the hard numbers (prices, profitability, margins, capacity utilization), you would draw the opposite conclusion and recognize that the oil industry’s best friends are those who claim to be its worst enemies (“Some dislike oil companies; some just dislike oil”; OGJ, Dec. 24, 2007, p. 76). They are more than misguided; they are stupid. What they actually achieve is the opposite of what they desire. Without these people the US would be producing another 5 million b/d offshore California and maybe even New Jersey. With that reality, crude prices would be back down to $25/bbl. The people forcing mogas and diesel sulfur down to 10 ppm can take credit for shutting down half of the US refineries in the last 25 years and certainly all of the hydroskimmers. The survivors have been the big integrated guys who are now making money faster than they can wheel-barrow it to the bank.
Ask yourself, Who are the biggest winners and who are the biggest losers in the reality of the current business environment? The biggest winners are the people who own the molecules. The biggest losers are the people who have to buy the molecules. It can’t be any more simple than that.
Tony Pavone
Menlo Park, Calif.
