The National Petroleum Council (NPC) 10 months ago presented to the US Department of Energy its comprehensive study, “Hard Truths,” which addressed maintaining US and world energy security without jeopardizing economic growth (OGJ, Aug. 6, 2007, p. 26).
NPC’s study evaluated the future of energy to 2030 and analyzed technology trends, opportunities, and policy options. Its findings included:
- Total global energy demand will grow by 50-60% by 2030.
- Coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable through 2030.
- Expansion of all economic, environmentally responsible energy sources will be needed, including coal, nuclear, unconventional oil and gas, and biomass and other renewable energy forms.
- Action must be initiated immediately and sustained over the long term.
- Risks include political hurdles, infrastructure requirements, and the need for a competent, trained workforce to replace retiring scientists, engineers, and other energy personnel.
“The concept of ‘energy independence’ is not realistic in the foreseeable future,” NPC concluded. However, it said moderating demand, expanding and diversifying domestic energy supplies, and strengthening global energy trade and investment could enhance US energy security.
“There can be no US energy security without global energy security,” it cautioned.
Five essential goals
NPC specified steps to achieve five core goals:
- Moderate demand, increasing efficiency in transportation, industrial, residential, and commercial use.
- As much as 3-5 million b/d of oil could be saved in the US by 2030 by maximum improvement of car and light truck fuel economy standards, adjusting light truck standards, and reducing vehicle weight, horsepower, and amenities.
- As much as 7-9 quadrillion btu/year could be saved by states’ implementing and enforcing aggressive energy-efficient building codes, establishing appliance standards for new products, and updating federal appliance standards regularly.
- To save a potential 4-7 quadrillion btu/year, DOE should promote and conduct research and development (R&D) of industrial energy efficiency technologies and best practices and have the government permanently extend the R&D tax credit to spur private R&D investment.
- Increase domestic supply.
- Promote enhanced oil recovery from existing reservoirs.
- Conduct national-regional, basin-oriented resource and market assessments, and use technology advancements for responsible development of high-potential areas now restricted by access limitations (potential: 40 billion bbl of oil and 250 tcf of gas).
- Accelerate oil shale and oil sands R&D and leasing and unconventional gas leasing and development (10 bcfd).
- Research second-generation biofuels crops that have lower input requirements or that are suited to more marginal lands (4 million b/d). Promote agricultural policies that enhance global production of both food crops and biomass for fuel.
- Expand nuclear energy-power industry and fulfill federal commitments on nuclear waste management.
- Improve energy technology and methodology by enhancing science and engineering capabilities and creating long-term R&D opportunities in supply-demand systems.
- To increase the number of trained energy professionals, provide scholarships for engineering and technical students, fund research at universities, and support technical schools.
- Modify the US tax code and retirement plan regulations to allow part-time work after retirement without penalty.
- Address carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Develop a legal and regulatory framework for reducing CO2 emissions, and encourage development of enabling technology. Provide a global framework for carbon management, including a transparent, predictable, economy-wide, market-based cost for CO2 emissions. Any cost imposed should consider the actions of other countries and their effects on US competitiveness.
- Provide access to federal lands for storage.
- Enable the long-term environmental viability of coal for power and fuel. Enable full-scale CCS and clean coal technology demonstration, organize efforts between the power and oil-gas industries, and undertake a national CO2 sequestration capacity assessment, encouraging global application. Focus on opportunities for US-China cooperation.
- Select the best policy avenue for limiting CO2 emissions: direct regulation, cap-and-trade, or carbon taxes and fees.
- Integrate energy policy into trade, economic, environmental, security, and foreign policies. Strengthen global energy trade and investment. Broaden dialogue with producing and consuming nations, including China, India, Canada, Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Assist and encourage global adoption of energy-efficiency technologies through technology transfer programs and lend-lease arrangements, and promote a global energy marketplace through G8, World Trade Organization, International Energy Agency, and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.
