I attended the Association for the Study of Peak Oil 2007 World Oil Conference that was held in Houston not too long ago (OGJ, Nov. 26, 2007, p. 22). The conference only drew 525 attendees. I find it alarming that only 525 people are concerned with the reality that world oil production will soon peak and then ultimately start declining. Some at the conference argued that peak production has already occurred, while others forecast a peak to occur in 2040. The fact is, it doesn’t really matter exactly when peak oil production happens as long as we can all agree that peak oil production will happen, and when it does, the lifestyles of most people in the US will change forever.
The United States has 5% of the world’s population yet consumes 25% of the world’s oil. Twenty years ago the United States imported 30% of its oil. Today we import 68% of our oil with most of it coming from Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria. Canada’s oil production is in decline, and so is Mexico’s. Venezuela has a whacky dictator, and Nigeria continues to have civil unrest. Lastly, Saudi Arabia’s oil production could be in decline, but no one knows for sure because the Saudis aren’t talking. When you factor in China and India’s increasing thirst for oil, it doesn’t take a fifth grader to tell you that demand will soon overtake supply if it hasn’t already.
When Matt Simmons [chairman, Simmons & Co. International, Houston] spoke at the ASPO conference, he noted that there were only 3.1 million hits on Google for “peak oil” vs. 80.5 million hits for “global warming.” How can an issue that will ultimately affect the way we live, the way we work, the way we travel, and indeed the quality of life for future generations to come, be of such little importance? I applaud the work of ASPO and similar organizations that strive to educate the public on such a complicated subject. I look forward to the 2008 World Oil Conference and only hope that we can at least double the 2007 attendance.
Jeffrey R. Hughes, President
HTK Consultants
Houston
