WATCHING THE WORLD: Oil at center of nuke talks

Feb. 19, 2007
Everyone knows that oil is the tool of choice where diplomacy is concerned, particularly in these days of a reactive market and supposedly depleting supplies.

Everyone knows that oil is the tool of choice where diplomacy is concerned, particularly in these days of a reactive market and supposedly depleting supplies. Look at the oil deal North Korea has just won.

Envoys from six nations-the US, Russia, China, Japan, and the two Koreas-have reached a tentative agreement early last week on the first steps toward North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, and oil was at the heart of the discussion.

Details of the agreement have yet to be made public, but it is said to resemble the bargain reached in 1994 during President Bill Clinton’s administration when North Korea pledged to freeze and eventually dismantle its reactor at Yongbyon in return for 500,000 tonnes/year of heavy fuel oil.

In the wait for further revelations of the latest deal, one thing is abundantly clear: The North Koreans wanted oil badly and bargained hard to get it without giving up too much.

Talks falter

Indeed, the Chinese-sponsored negotiations apparently had faltered for several days over what diplomats said were North Korean efforts to secure large amounts of energy aid but to avoid corresponding denuclearization steps.

According to diplomats involved in the talks, however, the first step in the process does call for North Korea to close down its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon and readmit international nuclear inspectors in exchange for energy aid.

The diplomats would not immediately say just how much energy aid North Korea would receive in the new bargain-it apparently had demanded large quantities of heavy fuel oil, reportedly up to 2 million tonnes-or describe the precise schedule that would tie fuel deliveries to closure of the Yongbyon reactor.

While the agreement is expected to help prevent new nuclear development by North Korea, it does not take up such issues as Pyongyang’s past uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons development, the closure of nuclear testing facilities, or its missile development program.

“Left for later” is the phrase diplomats use to describe the issue of North Korea’s existing nuclear weapons and the plutonium fuel already produced at Yongbyon-estimated by US experts as enough to make 8-10 bombs.

Bomb by bomb

Thus, some say, the latest agreement may mark a step forward, but it does not eliminate the possibility that Pyongyang may use its existing nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip during future talks. Can’t you just see it now? The amount of oil goes up bomb by bomb.

As one observer put it, North Korea is not likely to relinquish its nuclear capabilities too easily because of the belief that they are the last card that the country’s leader, Kim Jong-il, has to ensure survival of his regime.

Meanwhile, others are taking their cue from the North Koreans. “Generating nuclear energy is necessary in view of the depletion of oil reserves,” according to Iranian Ambassador to Algeria Hossein Abdi Abyaneh.