WATCHING THE WORLD: Asian doubts about Russia

Feb. 5, 2007
Adeputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament last month said his country is a guarantor of energy stability and energy security for Asia-Pacific countries.

Adeputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament last month said his country is a guarantor of energy stability and energy security for Asia-Pacific countries.

“We should do everything possible to prevent any political speculation, misrepresentation, and distorted scale of assessment of the actions of Russia,” said Federation Council Dep. Chairman Dmitry Mezentsev at the 15th session of the Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum.

Later, in presenting a report to the session, Mezentsev said Russia would build up its oil exports to Asian countries within the next few years.

“After construction of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline is over, up to 30 million tonnes of Russian oil will be supplied to the Asian market per year and up to 80 million tonnes in the long term,” he said.

Rising exports

He forecast that one third of Russia’s oil exports will go to Asia by 2020 and added that Russia would take account of the needs of Asia-Pacific nations in building up its energy infrastructure.

Sure. Tell us another one. Tell the Japanese and Chinese, and get ready for the horse laughs. After all, the Chinese are still smarting over Russian perfidy in connection with the ESPO. It was the Chinese who first brokered the line with Russia.

The Russians soon changed their tune on discovering Japanese interest in having the pipeline extend all the way to the Pacific Ocean instead of stopping at the Chinese border. And the Russians were especially interested as the price of oil steadily climbed.

If the Japanese thought they could rely on Russia as a main energy source, those thoughts began to shift radically when the Russian government started pressuring the Sakhalin-2 partners-two of them Japanese-for a stake in the venture.

We all know how that has turned out, with Russia’s OAO Gazprom now owning the controlling stake in Sakhalin-2, leaving markets in Asia-Pacific wondering about the supplies of gas or LNG they had been promised by the erstwhile project partners.

Japanese worries

Indeed, the Japanese are so worried about the state of Sakhalin-2 that the head of the Japanese Natural Resources and Energy Agency, Harufumi Mochizuki, traveled to Moscow recently to meet with Gazprom management to discuss fuel supplies to Far Eastern markets.

Even as he departed, however, it was still unknown who would represent Gazprom at the talks-hardly a reassuring or welcoming prospect for an anxious Japanese delegation.

What exactly are the Japanese looking for in such discussions? Industry sources said Japanese authorities plan to start a full-scale energy dialog with the Russian government and business representatives and seek regular consultations with Gazprom.

While Russian parliamentarians may offer soothing words about the trustworthiness of their country as a source of energy to Asia-Pacific, the reality is otherwise. Russia is playing on Asian-Pacific energy insecurity in order to bolster its own treasury.