If you were counting on increased supplies of Sudanese crude to reduce the worldwide price of oil, you may need to think once again, especially given plans made by rebels in the country.
To be sure, the Sudanese government has dismissed threats to attack oil fields made by rebels of the Justice and Equality Movement, who claim one assault already, kidnapping two oil workers in the process.
“The JEM say that they will attack oil fields but these are dreams that will not come true,” said Sudan’s Defense Minister Abdel Rahman Mohammed Hussein, who did not confirm or deny rebel claims.
JEM field commander Abdulaziz al-Nur Ashr Oct. 23 said his forces had kidnapped two workers in an attack on the Defra oil field, run by the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Co.
Talks boycotted
Talks on the Sudanese conflict were scheduled to start in Libya on Oct. 27, but JEM and the other main rebel group, SLA-Unity, boycotted them.
United Nations Sec. Gen. Ban Ki-moon announced the talks in September, hoping to achieve a political settlement before the planned deployment to Darfur of a 26,000-strong joint peacekeeping force of the African Union and the UN.
Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Al-Bashir said his government would initiate a ceasefire at the start of the Tripoli talks, but that he expected the rebel and opposition groups attending the talks to do the same.
Not surprisingly, the two main rebel groups-JEM and SLA-Unity-declined to attend the talks, saying the occasion would be a sham due to ringers introduced by the government.
“The mediation has fallen in the trap prepared by the government by making the negotiations an arena for every Jack, Tom, and Harry,” said Mohammed Bahr Hamdeen, a senior JEM leader.
Even a day ahead of the planned meeting, peace mediators insisted they would press on with the negotiations despite the decision by the two rebel groups to boycott the talks, saying time was running out for the war-torn region.
Trump card
The absence of the rebels did not seem to bother the mediators very much, certainly not enough to recognize the invalidity of the proceedings.
“Anytime a significant movement figure is not present,” said Salim Ahmed Salim, the African Unity representative who is helping mediate the talks, “it’s not a plus for the negotiations.” Not a plus? Goodness, it would seem to render them impossible.
One meditator, Jan Eliasson, the UN’s special envoy to Darfur, even criticized the rebel groups for not working to settle the conflict. “I don’t see this as a failure for the negotiations, but as a failure for those who have not seized the opportunity to move toward peace,” said Eliasson.
But the rebels held the trump card: “Whatever happens in Sirte without JEM and SLA-Nur does not represent Darfur’s people,” said JEM’s Abdulaziz.
More to the point, though, where will that leave Sudan’s oil?
