Western leaders, mistrustful of the intentions of Russia as a supplier of energy, want to ensure that other sources of oil and gas are available. Much of that supply is being sought in countries of the former Soviet Union, and that makes the Russians nervous.
A sign of nervousness came last week when Russian leader Vladimir Putin met Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and warned the West not to pursue oil pipeline projects in, around, and under the Caspian Sea that are not backed by regional powers.
In fact, Putin warned that energy pipeline projects crossing the Caspian could be implemented only if all five nations that border the Caspian support them. He even played the now famous-or infamous-environmental card.
“Projects that may inflict serious environmental damage to the region cannot be implemented without prior discussion by all five Caspian nations,” said the Russian leader, whose warnings underlined Moscow’s strong opposition to efforts toward pipelines to the West bypassing Russia.
New pipeline
Putin’s warnings came just days after ministers from five East European countries signed an agreement for construction of an oil pipeline extension that will bypass Russia and link Caspian producers directly to consumers in Europe.
The agreement, signed by Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania, calls for the building of a 490-km extension to the existing Odessa-Brody pipeline and securing supplies of Azerbaijan’s oil to fill the extended line.
The new pipeline is considered a victory for Europe generally and East European governments in particular, who are increasingly weary of Russia’s nationalistic energy policy and are searching for alternative energy sources and supply routes. It is no less a victory for Caspian producers who want to reach markets free of Russian middlemen.
Other Caspian producers are interested in similar pipeline projects, including Turkmenistan, which last month conferred with Austria’s Economic Minister Martin Bartenstein, the UK’s Minister of State for Energy Malcolm Wicks, and, to Putin’s chagrin, US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice.
Turkmenistan interested
Along the way, Turkmen President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov said his country, “having multiple vectors in its energy policy and creating alternative export routes, including in the southern direction through the Caspian Sea, is prepared to deliver natural gas to European countries.”
But Putin is fully prepared to oppose any such effort, as evidenced by his visit to Tehran. Indeed, he seems to be envisioning an earlier time when Iran and the former Soviet Union controlled all of the resources of the region-as well as access to them.
By realigning with Iran-now under Western eyes for its nuclear ambitions-Putin is attempting to apply pressure that he hopes will cause producers and consumers to have second thoughts about pipelines from the Caspian.
It is a power play, pure and simple, but one doomed to fail. Market forces are stronger by far than Putin’s rhetoric or his nerves.
