I hope your Aug. 27 editorial, “Restating temperatures,” (p. 19) moderates the global warming zealots, but so far it doesn’t look like it has.
The Sept. 4 Wall Street Journal reported that, at the conclusion of a United Nations-sponsored climate meeting in Vienna the last week of August, diplomats issued a statement saying industrialized countries should try to cut their greenhouse gas emissions 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020.
I just ran some quick calculations. US carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 were 4,978 million tonnes (International Energy Outlook, 2006, US Energy Information Administration). The 1990 US resident population was 249.623 million, so per capita CO2 emissions were 19.9 tonnes.
Estimating the US population in 2020 is difficult because we don’t know the level of immigration. However, if we assume an annual legal immigration of 1.116 million (the average over the most recent 3-year period, 2004-06), and a natural rate of increase of 0.565%/year, the US population will reach 340.3 million in 2020. The Census Bureau’s projection for 2020 is 335.8 million, but this estimate was made in 2004 and does not reflect the increased level of immigration since 2004.
A reduction in CO2 emissions to a level 25% below 1990 emissions would mean year 2020 emissions would be limited to 3,733 million tonnes. Because of the increased population, per capita emissions would have to fall to 10.97 tonnes. This represents a 45% reduction from 1990 levels-and this is supposed to be achieved in 13 years. Don’t these idiots who call themselves diplomats know how to use a slide rule?
Incidentally, my estimates appear to be conservative. If per capita CO2 emissions remained at the 1990 level of 19.94 tonnes, the 2020 population of 340 million would produce 6,790 million tonnes of CO2. EIA’s projection for year 2020 emissions is 7,120 million tonnes.
Donald F. Anthrop
Professor
San Jose State University
