Future global production of LPG will be greatly affected by the additional natural gas produced in conjunction with liquefaction projects. New projects and expansions have been announced or planned for Qatar, Nigeria, Angola, Indonesia, Russia, Norway, and several other countries. These projects may add a large increment of LPG supply to the world markets during the next 5 years.
The most notable projects are in Qatar, with development of several new LNG trains associated with the North Field, the world’s largest nonassociated gas field. Recoverable reserves in the field are estimated to be as much as 900 tcf of natural gas, representing about 20% of the world’s proven gas reserves.
If these LNG production projects are developed on their current timeframes, Qatar’s production could soar to more than 8 million tonnes of LPG by 2010 from only 1.4 million tonnes in 2000. Iran has plans to develop natural gas projects associated with the portions of the same gas field that fall within its national waters. LPG supplies from Iran will likely increase by more than 50% as the South Pars field is developed. Some of the additional LPG will be used in petrochemical projects that are being developed in conjunction with the gas production and processing facilities.
Expansion projects in Nigeria will also increase LPG production. Additions to the Escravos and Oso gas liquids projects should add to LPG production by 2010, and the Olokola and Brass LNG projects should continue to ramp up LPG production. For both Nigeria and Iran, however, instability threatens the continued development of these projects.
Along with the additional LPG derived from natural gas liquefaction around the world, more LPG production will also come from existing and new gas processing and refinery projects.
Purvin & Gertz expects that LPG supplies during 2006-10 will expand more rapidly than in the first half of the decade. Total global LPG supply will likely reach 260 million tonnes by 2010, up from 227 million tonnes in 2006.
