LPG production is rising in nearly every region of the world.
2006 global demand was about 227 million tonnes (7.3 million b/d), up 3.6% from 2005. This increase compares to an average demand growth of about 2.2%/year 2000-05. LPG production and exports have ramped up, associated with higher crude oil and LNG production rates.
Because LPG is a by-product of oil and gas production, LPG production is unlikely to be reduced, despite a surge in supply and a probable reduction in LPG prices relative to crude.
Meanwhile, LPG demand has also increased around the globe, but more slowly. About half of total LPG demand comes from the residential-commercial market for heating and cooking. Within limits, base demand that consists of residential-commercial demand and a significant fraction of other LPG demand is relatively insensitive to price. Consequently, LPG supply in excess of this base demand will need to be consumed by the more elastic demand coming mainly from petrochemical plants or stored for later consumption when the market adjusts.
During the past 3 years, the LPG market has moved from demand-driven to supply-driven. A global LPG supply surplus is building even while crude oil and petroleum product prices are strong. This has affected LPG price relationships. Global LPG markets are experiencing high absolute LPG price levels, which are supported by high crude oil and natural gas prices, but recent LPG prices have also been relatively weak compared to crude.
Markets for LPG market substitutes such as ethane, light naphtha, and certain fuels will also be affected by the LPG supply surge. For example, most propane and butane in raw gas streams will be separated from LNG upon liquefaction. Significant amounts of ethane, however, will often be left in the LNG when there is no local demand.
At regasification, this ethane associated with LNG will be less expensive to separate because the refrigeration cost is already paid. On the US Gulf Coast, both ethane produced from LNG streams and LPG imported for use in the petrochemical plants will likely put downward pressure on gas processing margins.
Global supply
In 2006, global supplies of LPG rose to about 227 million tonnes from 199 million tonnes in 2000. Thus, supplies increased by about 2.4%/year. Purvin & Gertz expects supplies will reach about 260 million tonnes by 2010 (Fig. 2).
Changes in sources
Natural gas processing continues to be the largest source of LPG supply, accounting for nearly 60% of total worldwide production during the last 10 years. Refineries accounted for nearly all of the remaining production. Other sources account for less than 0.5% of worldwide LPG production.
A fundamental change in the market, however, will occur during the next few years as LPG is recovered from LNG, either as part of new natural gas liquefaction plants or at regasification terminals. The growth in LNG facilities around the world will unlock previously stranded gas supplies and increase LPG production accordingly.
Not all LNG projects will result in increased LPG supplies, however, because some markets can utilize LNG that includes the contained LPG. With many projects, however, extraction of the LPG components will be necessary before liquefaction of the gas stream.
Regional comparisons
Regional LPG production has shown some notable shifts during the last decade.
In 1990, LPG produced in regions east of the Suez Canal (“East of Suez”) totaled slightly less than 30% of world total. By 2000, East of Suez’s share of total production had risen to about 35%, and Purvin & Gertz estimates that more than 40% of the world’s LPG supplies will come from East of Suez by 2010.
On a percentage basis, production increases have been particularly high in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where supply increased by nearly 14% to about 12.6 million tonnes in 2006 from 6.8 million tonnes in 2000.
Other regions that grew quickly on a percentage basis in the same period include the Far East, Oceania, the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, and Latin America, which each saw growth of 4-5%.
Since 2000, total global LPG production has increased by more than 28 million tonnes. On an absolute production basis, the largest supply increase came from the Middle East, which increased by 8.7 million tonnes to about 43.3 million tonnes in 2006 from a relatively large base of 34.6 million tonnes in 2000.
Thus, the Middle East accounted for almost a third of the world increase in LPG production so far in this century. As noted previously, the CIS region had an increase of about 5.7 million tonnes. The Far East and Latin America each had increases of about 5.1 million tonnes. Although the Indian subcontinent and Oceania had large increases on a percentage basis, their contributions on an absolute basis were much smaller because they started from a smaller production base in 2000.
Middle East
The Middle East has experienced the highest growth in LPG production since 2000 despite consecutive production decreases there in 2001 and 2002. Iraq had a dramatic LPG production decrease in 2003 due to the war, but the overall impact on the region was relatively small since Iraq’s production was less than 5% of the Middle East region.
The Middle East has historically provided much of the LPG that is consumed in Asia, and this trade pattern will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
Increased crude oil production in the Middle East during the last few years has caused an increase in associated-gas production in the region. The corresponding increase in LPG production has freed up some supplies for export. The largest increase in production, however, came from the gas processing industry in the Middle East. Refineries produce only 11% of the region’s total LPG supplies.
Saudi Arabia remains the largest LPG producer in the region with about half of the Middle East’s production. But Saudi Arabia has gradually been losing some share of the region’s production to Iran, Qatar, and the UAE. During the next several years, we expect that LPG production will increase in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and the UAE.
All of these countries continue to develop existing and new gas reserves. The continued growth in worldwide demand for LNG will also drive expansion of gas processing in the Middle East. By 2010, LPG production in the region will likely exceed 58 million tonnes.
North America
Despite production growth in the Middle East, North America remained the largest regional producer of LPG in 2006. The region’s LPG production declined, however, by 2.4 million tonnes/year 2000-06. North America is unlikely to lose its dominant position on the supply side in the foreseeable future.
Although a large amount of production in the prolific Gulf of Mexico region was knocked off line for several months during 2005 by two major hurricanes, that does not account for the overall decline. Production in North America had peaked in 2000 at more than 59 million tonnes but then declined to less than 55 million tonnes by 2003. Since 2003, production has increased except for 2005.
Purvin & Gertz expects LPG production in North America will grow to about 58 million tonnes in 2007 but then decline slightly through the end of the decade. Gas processing provides slightly more than 60% of the LPG production in the region.
Far East
The increase in Far East production of LPG 2000-06 was driven largely by increased production from refineries in China. Production in Korea and Taiwan also increased, but the increases were dwarfed by the increases in China. All of the production in the region comes from refineries, as there is no appreciable gas processing.
In the future, Purvin & Gertz expects that refinery production of LPG will increase, especially in China, where new refineries and refinery expansions are planned to accommodate the growing Chinese economy and growing demand for transportation fuels.
Africa
In Africa, LPG production rose to 16.6 million tonnes in 2006 from 14.5 million tonnes in 2000, a growth of 2.3%/year. The net increase in production 2000-06 was driven by increases in Nigeria and Angola, which offset a decline in Algeria. Purvin & Gertz expects that LPG production will continue to expand in Africa. Particularly large absolute production increases are likely from Nigeria and Algeria, with significant contributions from Egypt, Libya, and Equatorial Guinea as well.
On Africa’s west coast, increases in crude oil production and in gas processing capacity since 2000 pushed Nigeria’s LPG production up by more than 1 million tonnes. In the past, a large portion of Nigeria’s natural gas production, along with the entrained LPG, was flared. This practice has been decreasing, as gas is now being processed to recover the LPG.
Additions to LNG liquefaction capacity have also increased the overall recovery of LPG from produced gas in Nigeria. LPG production in Nigeria will likely increase to more than 4 million tonnes by 2010. Civil unrest in the country may become the largest impediment to increased production. Other countries in West Africa that produce and export LPG include Angola, the Congo, and Equatorial Guinea.
On the northern coast of Africa, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya are significant LPG producers. Algeria is still the world’s second largest LPG exporter after Saudi Arabia.
Algeria produced about half of the total for Africa in 2006. Egypt produced 11% of African supply in 2006 but remains a net importer of LPG to meet high domestic demand. Libya is also a fairly large producer of LPG, and its production should reach about 1.4 million tonnes by 2010.
Latin America
LPG production in the Caribbean and Latin America rose to more than 26 million tonnes in 2006. This production was less than in the Middle East and North America but higher than in the Far East.
Within the region, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, and Argentina are the largest producers of LPG, together accounting for more than 80% of the 2006 LPG production in the region. Gas processing in the region accounts for more than 60% of LPG production, a percentage that will grow in the future.
Several countries in Latin America have plans for new and expanded gas liquefaction that will add to the regional LPG supply. Purvin & Gertz expects total LPG production in the region will rise to slightly more than 30 million tonnes by 2010. Venezuela is likely to have the largest supply growth in the future as several new projects are brought on line. Peru, which began production from the Camisea field in 2004, should grow by almost 0.8 million tonnes as well.
Indian subcontinent
Production on the Indian subcontinent rose to 7.9 million tonnes in 2006 from only 6.3 million tonnes in 2000. India dominates the region’s LPG supply, with around 95% of production. Much of the growth has resulted from additional crude oil refining capacity that was added in the late 1990s.
More than two-thirds of regional LPG production comes from refineries, which is a wide departure from the world average. By 2010, regional production will likely increase to around 9 million tonnes.
Southeast Asia; Oceania
In Southeast Asia, about 56% of LPG is produced from gas processing, and the balance from refineries. The largest suppliers in the region are Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, with Thailand being the largest producer at around 38% of regional production.
Indonesia has struggled to maintain LPG production at historic levels, due mainly to declining gas production at Bontang and Arun.
The Arun LNG plant was shut down by civil unrest in the area, and LPG exports from Arun were discontinued several years ago. Gas volumes at Bontang continue to decline. Although additional LNG projects are under way, natural gas feeding some of the newer projects is relatively dry and unlikely to yield much LPG.
Purvin & Gertz expects that regional LPG production in Southeast Asia will increase by about 1.9 million tonnes between 2006 and 2010. This estimate assumes some growth in regional gas processing. Also, there are plans for a grassroots refinery in Vietnam, but this project is unlikely to add significant LPG volumes until at least 2009.
In nearby Oceania, LPG production increased to 4.4 million tonnes in 2006 from 3.4 million tonnes in 2000. Oceania experienced growth of almost 5%/year during this period, but the absolute volumes are small in comparison with overall worldwide supply. Regional production will continue to expand gradually.
Europe; CIS
Northern Europe is a large but mature producing region. LPG supplies have grown by about 1.2%/year since 2000, including a 1.1% decline in 2006. Production from the North Sea represents a significant portion of regional production, but refineries in the region provide nearly half of the region’s total LPG supplies. We expect that regional supplies will be flat to slightly reduced through the end of the decade. Increased refinery supplies of LPG should help offset declining North Sea supplies.
In contrast, the neighboring CIS region is experiencing a strong increase in supply. In 2006, the CIS region produced 12.6 million tonnes of LPG, which represents nearly a 14% /year increase since 2000. This growth occurred mainly as a result of additional gas processing in several countries.
LPG demand growth
Total global demand for LPG was slightly more than 227 million tonnes in 2006. Purvin & Gertz estimates that the market will grow to about 236 million tonnes in 2007 and reach more than 260 million tonnes by 2010. Thus, demand will likely grow by a total of about 32% compared with demand of 198 million tonnes in 2000 (Fig. 1).
Although total global growth for LPG since 2000 averaged 2.5%/year, growth rates in individual geographic regions have varied significantly. The highest growth in base demand (i.e., outside the price-sensitive petrochemical industry) has occurred in developing regions of the world. In the more mature economies of Western Europe and North America, LPG base demand increased much more slowly than the global average.
Demand growth in 2006 continued to be high in the Middle East, Africa, the CIS, Southeast Asia, and the Indian subcontinent. Much of this demand growth resulted from rising consumption by the residential-commercial sector. Demand growth in the Middle East primarily, however, resulted from the region’s expansion of its petrochemical sector.
Asia, Oceania
The total Asian market-the Far East, Southeast Asia, and Indian subcontinent-overtook North America as the largest LPG consuming market in the world in 2001. LPG demand in Asia totaled about 66 million tonnes in 2006. For comparison, the North American market was about 62 million tonnes in 2006.
LPG demand in Asia has increased by an average 3.6%/year since 2000. Nearly 70% of total demand in the region is for use in the residential-commercial sector. It is interesting to note that South Korea is the world’s largest consumer of LPG for automobile fuel; at a 2006 consumption of about 4.2 million tonnes of LPG, however, this application still represents a relatively small contribution to the total Asian market demand.
Almost all of the demand growth for LPG in Asia is in the residential-commercial sector. This region includes more than 3.5 billion people, or almost 56% of the world’s total population. Continued economic growth in this region will result in additional consumption of LPG, although more slowly than during the last 10 years. Per-capita consumption of LPG in this region will likely increase significantly in the future.
Within the region, Japan and China are the largest consumers of LPG. China’s total demand surpassed that of Japan in 2004. In 2006, demand in China totaled about 19.0 million tonnes, while Japan’s total was 18.2 million tonnes.
Growth in Chinese demand for LPG was very strong at about 20%/year throughout the 1990s but has slowed to 6.7%/year since 2000, with 2006 growth of only about 2%. Chinese demand has been dampened by high prices relative to alternatives for cooking and heating. Purvin & Gertz expects that Chinese demand will continue to grow but not at rates seen in the 1990s.
In contrast, Japanese demand growth was 0.4%/year during the 1990s and has been negative at -0.6%/year since 2000. Japan’s mature market will exhibit only modest demand growth.
The LPG market in Southeast Asia is much smaller than the Far East but generally growing faster. The Far East market was more than six times the size of the Southeast Asian market in 2000, but the ratio has since narrowed to less than 5.5. Some of the Southeast Asian markets have exhibited strong growth rates and are becoming more important regional players in the LPG trade.
The region has experienced total LPG demand growth of greater than 5%/year since 2000. Total LPG demand in the region grew to about 8.7 million tonnes in 2006 from 6.6 million tonnes in 2000.
Much of the demand in the region is concentrated in Malaysia and Thailand, both of which have mature LPG markets with high penetration in the residential-commercial markets. Together, these two countries represent 60% of the total demand in the region.
Most countries in Southeast Asia, with the notable exception of Singapore, have experienced reasonably high growth rates during the last 10 years. More than 70% of the regional consumption is in the residential-commercial sector. Purvin & Gertz expects that growth in this sector will continue through the rest of the decade at more than 5%/year.
With almost 10%/year of growth expected, Vietnam will likely exhibit the highest growth rate of any country in the region through 2010.
The LPG markets in the Indian subcontinent continue to exhibit strong potential growth. In 2006, total demand rose to about 11.2 million tonnes from only 7.2 million tonnes in 2000. This increase represents growth of more than 9%/year. Almost all of this demand is concentrated in India, which accounts for more than 90% of the total LPG consumption on the subcontinent.
Compared with Asia, LPG demand in nearby Oceania is very low at only 2.1 million tonnes in 2006. Australia dominates the regional market with total consumption of 1.9 million tonnes. One unique aspect of the Australian market is the very high use of LPG as auto fuel, an end-use sector that accounts for about 60% of the total use in the country.
Middle East
In the Middle East, LPG demand is a notable exception to most regions that consume large amounts of LPG in the residential-commercial sectors. Demand in the Middle East has increasingly been heavily influenced by the petrochemical sector’s use of LPG as a feedstock.
Before 1994, the chemicals sector consumed less than 10% of total LPG demand in the region. In 2006 chemicals comprised about 45% of total demand, and by 2010 that figure will likely rise to 60% or more of total LPG demand as new projects come on stream.
Saudi Arabia has been a major contributor to the use of the LPG for chemicals production and currently accounts for about 45% of total LPG consumption in the Middle East. In 2006, regional demand for LPG totaled about 16.2 million tonnes, and Saudi Arabia accounted for about 7.3 million tonnes. Petrochemical feedstock demand currently accounts for almost 80% of the total demand in Saudi Arabia.
Demand for LPG in Saudi Arabia will likely jump sharply 2008-09 as the next series of chemical manufacturing facilities come into production. Demand growth in the residential-commercial sector should remain relatively steady, with moderate growth during the next few years.
Iran is the next largest consumer of LPG in the Middle East, accounting for slightly more than 20% of regional demand. Demand growth in Iran has averaged almost 8%/year since 2000. Petrochemical use of LPG in the country will increase dramatically after 2010, pushed by expanded production from the South Pars field.
Europe
LPG demand has increased rapidly in some countries of Eastern Europe. Due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union, many of the newly formed republics experienced severe economic downturns during 1990-95. Since 1995, however, many of these countries have enjoyed strong economic growth, which has driven up LPG demand accordingly.
From 1995 to 2005, demand in many of the countries of Eastern Europe increased at more than 7%/year. Although this demand growth is strong in percentage terms, the absolute increases in LPG volumes were less impressive, mainly because these countries were starting from fairly low consumption bases.
In Northern Europe, there is no single, dominant LPG-consuming country. The UK and Ireland comprise the largest consumer of LPG and currently account for 4.0 million tonnes of regional consumption that totaled about 17.8 million tonnes in 2006. Scandinavia consumed about 3.2 million tonnes of LPG in 2006, and Germany used about 2.8 million tonnes. The Netherlands and Poland consumed a little more than 2.5 million tonnes of LPG each.
Total base demand in Northern Europe has grown only slowly to 13.2 million tonnes in 2006 from 12.0 million tonnes in 2000. Price-sensitive consumption for ethylene production, however, has more than doubled to 4.6 million tonnes in 2006 from 2.0 million tonnes in 2000. Purvin & Gertz expects price-sensitive demand to grow rapidly for the next few years to more than 5 million tonnes in 2010 as global production of LPG rises faster than base demand.
Within Northern Europe, autofuel use in Poland has exhibited extremely strong growth during the past 10 years and accounted for the bulk of growth in the country’s LPG market. As in many other countries where autogas represents a significant component of LPG demand, Poland’s autogas consumption of about 1.9 million tonnes/year is driven by the fuel tax structure. In the absence of increased incentives, autogas growth in Poland should slow.
In southern or Mediterranean Europe, growth patterns for LPG have been quite different than in the north. The countries that make up this region include Spain, Italy, France, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Balkan states. Most of these markets are very mature, and the petrochemical sector does not make up a large component of demand. Consequently, the region is not expected to show strong growth.
Demand in southern Europe peaked at 17.2 million tonnes in 2000 and declined to 15.3 million tonnes in 2003. Demand rebounded to about 16.2 million tonnes in 2006 but is not expected to surpass 2000 levels by the end of the decade.
In 1990-98 in the CIS region (Russia and the republics of the former Soviet Union, except the Baltic states), demand steadily declined due to weak economic conditions. In recent years, however, growth has returned to these markets. Since 2000, LPG demand in the CIS has grown at rates exceeding 10%/year.
In 2006, demand in the CIS totaled about 9.7 million tonnes. Russia accounts for the largest portion of the regional demand, consuming more than 80% of the LPG. Within Russia, the residential-commercial sector uses slightly less than half of the total, and petrochemical consumption of LPG accounts for almost 40%. LPG demand in the CIS will likely rise to about 10.6 million tonnes in 2010.
Africa
LPG markets have grown rapidly in Africa. Demand for the entire region has grown at 6.7%/year since 2000. In 2006, total LPG demand rose to 9.8 million tpy. Almost all the consumption in Africa is in the residential-commercial sector.
Egypt is the largest consuming country, accounting for about a third of regional consumption. Algeria and Morocco are also large regional consumers of LPG. Regional demand will likely increase to 11.8 million tonnes by 2010.
Latin America
Within Latin America, a large market for LPG, about 80% of the LPG is consumed in the residential-commercial sector. Mexico and Brazil account for almost 60% of LPG consumption. Starting in 2000, LPG demand in Latin America declined to a low of about 25.7 million tonnes in 2003. Much of the contraction occurred in Brazil and Mexico due to a combination of economic factors and penetration into the market by natural gas. Latin American demand has since rebounded to more than 27 million tonnes in 2006. Purvin & Gertz expects that demand will grow to nearly 30 million tonnes by 2010.
Mexico continues to have the highest per-capita use of LPG in the residential market of any country in the world. Four out of five households in the country use LPG as cooking fuel. Mexico consumed about 9.6 million tonnes of LPG in 2006-about 50% more than in Brazil.
North America
The North American market is one of the largest in the world and is quite mature. North American base demand for LPG grew at less than the world average in 2006. The US petrochemical industry, however, relies heavily on LPG as a primary feedstock, and petrochemicals LPG demand was robust in 2006. Total LPG demand-including price-sensitive demand-grew at about 5.8%.
Unique in the North American market is its ability to accommodate a large amount of price-sensitive demand. The US Gulf Coast has considerable underground storage, ample marine terminals, and a large petrochemical industry that has wide feedstock flexibility. These attributes allow the US Gulf Coast to consume large amounts of LPG when the price is right.
Consequently, when global supply of LPG exceeds base demand, the US Gulf Coast is often the superior outlet for the excess supply because the LPG can be cracked as feedstock or stored until prices improve.
Base demand in North America has grown at only 0.4%/year since 2000. Even with the price-sensitive demand included, the growth rate was only 1.2%/year. This small percentage growth rate, however, masks the absolute demand increase due to the large size of the market. Total LPG consumption in the North American market increased by 4.3 million tonnes 2000-06. For comparison, by itself, this increase is twice the size of the total LPG consumption in Oceania in 2006.
Because North America is a very mature market, Purvin & Gertz does not expect base demand to grow appreciably in the region. Base demand growth should average only about 1%/year through 2010. Demand by the price-sensitive market, however, should expand rapidly until the surplus peaks, likely in 2008.
After the peak of the surplus, price-sensitive demand will decline but should remain relatively high for several years as the petrochemical industry takes advantage of low-cost global supplies. Total LPG demand, including the price-sensitive demand, will likely average nearly 4%/year growth through 2008, and then to decline through the end of the decade as global base demand catches up with the new production.
Trade patterns
An interesting shift in global LPG trade patterns occurred in the late 1990s. Between 1995 and 2000, LPG demand in the East of Suez region increased by about 17.3 million tpy. During this same period, supplies in the region increased by only 15 million tonnes/year. Although these changes seem subtle, the overall LPG supply-demand balance East of Suez shifted from a surplus of supplies to a deficit (Fig. 3). Conversely, West of Suez experienced an equal but opposite shift in its LPG supply-demand balance.
These relative changes in regional supply-demand balances affected world LPG trade patterns. The Far East continues to be the largest LPG importing region in the world. Additional consumption of LPG to produce petrochemicals in some of the exporting countries in the Middle East, however, has reduced LPG available for export. Therefore, in recent years the Far East has had to import LPG from increasingly diverse sources to meet the demand of the region. As a result, imports into the Far East have come from West and North Africa and even from the North Sea.
The US continues to be the primary swing destination or supplier of LPG to the global market. The US has a large capacity to store LPG during times of excess global supplies and can also supply LPG from storage to other regions when their supplies are tight. Furthermore, the US petrochemical industry can consume large amounts of LPG when prices are attractive relative to other possible feedstocks.
Our analysis indicates that the increase in global LPG supplies will outpace the increase in base demand during the next couple of years. Therefore, discretionary consumption of LPG as a feedstock for petrochemical production (price-sensitive demand) will need to increase. Total global price-sensitive demand will likely increase by as much as 6-7 million tonnes/year 2006-08.
As base demand increases to take up more of the surplus, the price-sensitive demand should decline somewhat by the end of the decade. At the peak of the surplus, about half of the increase is likely to come to the United States Gulf Coast with the balance to Western Europe and the Far East.
The authors
Walter M. Hart ([email protected]) joined Purvin &Gertz Inc. as an associate consultant in the Houston office in 2006. He worked for 2 years at Owens Corning Fiberglas and 14 years at Union Carbide Corp. and Dow Chemical Co. Hart holds a BS (1986) in chemical engineering from Notre Dame, a PhD in chemical engineering from West Virginia University, and an MBA from the University of Charleston. He is a registered professional engineer and a member of GPA and the AIChE.
Ken W. Otto ([email protected]) is a senior vice-president and director in the Houston office of Purvin & Gertz Inc. He joined E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. in 1977, then moved to Champlin Petroleum Co. in 1979 and served 4 years at Corpus Christi Petroleum Co. Otto joined Purvin & Gertz in 1986, was elected principal of the company in 1987, senior principal in 1990, and vice-president in 1997. He holds a BS (1977) in chemical engineering from the University of Texas at Austin.
Ronald L. Gist ([email protected]) is a senior principal in the Houston office of Purvin & Gertz Inc., having joined the company in 1996. He began his career with E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. in 1971 after receiving both BS and MS degrees in chemical engineering from Colorado School of Mines. Gist chaired GPA’s market information committee and is currently a director of the Houston chapter of GPA.
S. Craig Whitley ([email protected]) is a senior principal in Purvin & Gertz Inc.’s Houston office. He joined the company in 1993, working in market analysis of natural gas, LPG, and NGL markets. Whitley has a BS in chemistry and zoology from Northwestern Louisiana State University, Nachitoches. He is a member of GPA, the International Association of Energy Economists, and the National Propane Gas Association.