Crude oil prices fell only slightly on the New York market Oct. 15 after plunging the previous day. Brent crude oil prices fell by more than $1/bbl on Oct. 15, and the average for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries basket dropped more than $3/bbl.
In early trading on Oct. 16, US light, sweet crude oil prices briefly dipped below $80/bbl on reports that OPEC appears increasingly unlikely to cut production.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE are ready to oppose cutting OPEC’s oil-production quota at the November cartel meeting despite plunging oil prices, analysts and consultants said.
Citigroup analysts issued a note saying that only US shale production was likely to slow if prices were to reach $75/bbl.
“To take out enough new production to flatten production growth might require prices in the $50[/bbl] range [in the] short term,” Citigroup analysts said.
The Energy Information Administration estimated US commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased 8.9 million bbl for the week ended Oct. 10 compared with the previous week.
At 370.6 million bbl, crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year, EIA said. The agency released its weekly petroleum status report a day later than normal because of the federal Columbus Day holiday on Oct. 13.
The American Petroleum Institute said its own inventory showed an estimated gain of 10.2 million bbl in crude oil supplies.
Regarding natural gas in underground storage across the Lower 48, EIA estimated levels at a rounded 3.3 tcf on Oct. 10. That represented a net increase of 94 bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 344 bcf less than last year at this time and 362 bcf below the 5-year average of 3.66 tcf, EIA said in its weekly gas storage report.
Gasoline inventories decline
Total US motor gasoline inventories decreased 4 million bbl last week, and are in the middle of the average range, EIA said. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased 1.5 million bbl, marking the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories rose 700,000 bbl for the week ended Oct. 10. Those levels are well above the upper limit of the average range.
US refinery inputs averaged more than 15.3 million b/d, which EIA said was 233,000 b/d less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.1% of capacity last week.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging about 9.3 million b/d. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million b/d.
US crude oil imports averaged more than 7.7 million b/d for the week ended Oct. 10, up 28,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million b/d, 8.4% below the same 4-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, last week averaged 428,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 145,000 b/d.
Energy prices
The New York Mercantile Exchange November crude oil contract dropped 6¢ on Oct. 15, closing at $81.78/bbl. The December contract price fell 26¢ to $80.94/bbl.
The natural gas contract for November fell 1.6¢ to a rounded $3.80/MMbtu. The cash gas price at Henry Hub, La., was down 9¢, closing at $3.82/MMbtu.
Heating oil for November delivery declined a rounded 1.4¢ to a rounded $2.46/gal. Reformulated gasoline stock for oxygenate blending for November delivery fell 3¢ to a rounded $2.15/gal.
The November ICE contract for Brent crude oil was down $1.26 to close at $83.78/bbl. The December contract was down $1.29 to $84.12/bbl. The ICE gas oil contract for November gave up $13.50, settling at $732.75/tonne.
The average price for OPEC’s basket of 12 benchmark crudes was $81.89/bbl on Oct. 15, down $3.25.
Contact Paula Dittrick at [email protected].
