Warren R. True
Chief Technology Editor-LNG/Gas Processing
BUENOS AIRES, Oct. 8 -- Identifying and securing the role of natural gas in the world’s energy mix out to 2030 is industry’s challenge, said BP PLC Chief Executive Tony Hayward in keynote remarks at the 24th World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires.
That challenge is complicated by forecasts that the world by 2030 will need 45% more energy, investments of $25-30 trillion, and 50 million b/d more crude oil production. That latter would be, he said, twice the current production of countries of the Middle East.
Evolution
Hayward said industry is in the middle of an evolution, not a revolution, in securing components of its future energy mix. Alternatives will play a role but exactly what remains to be defined.
“We need to shape that evolution, build a road map to diversity of supply,” he said, “in fact several road maps varying by country and sector.” The world will need a more diverse supply for energy security and to address climate change.
“We must increase gas use,” said Hayward. It has the greatest potential at the lowest cost all with technologies available today. We also must take the carbon out of energy supply today and “be realistic” about how much that process costs.
Historically, he said, coal has been the choice of utilities. In the US, it makes up 50% of power generation but is responsible for 80% of emissions. And Hayward echoed a consistent theme at this conference when he said commercially viable carbon capture and storage technology is “at least 10 years away and will be expensive.”
Unconventional gas
Wind and solar supply to power generation is intermittent and can play a role in supply, but gas—especially now—is dependable. Reserves estimates are rising sharply.
“There has been a revolution in the gas fields of the North America,” Hayward said. New technologies developed and used in US gas fields are just now becoming available outside North America. He said in a later press conference BP plans to employ the new technologies in Oman, among other possible target areas.
Unconventional gas currently under development will increase BP’s own 2008 global reserves estimates by 60%.
New abundance of gas should give the power industry confidence of supply and producers confidence in investment.
Contact Warren R. True at [email protected].
File photo from PDVSA..
