NPRA: Speakers differ on ethanol 'blend wall' issues

March 24, 2009
Meeting specifications for renewable fuels in the US requires rapid growth in the use of E85 and, if the ethanol industry has its way, relaxation of the current 10% cap on gasoline for uses other than in flexible-fuel vehicles.

Bob Tippee
OGJ Editor

SAN ANTONIO, Mar. 24 -- Meeting specifications for renewable fuels in the US requires rapid growth in the use of 85-15 ethanol-gasoline blends (E85) and, if the ethanol industry has its way, relaxation of the current 10% cap on gasoline for uses other than in flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs).

Both options raise problems, including the possibility that raising the blending cap threatens equipment and safety, speakers said at the National Petrochemical & Refiners Association's annual meeting this week in San Antonio.

Sagging gasoline consumption and annual increases in the mandate for renewable fuels combine to make imminent a phenomenon known as the "blend wall."

That's when the market for gasoline other than E85 has absorbed all the ethanol it can at the 10 vol % blending level.

The blend wall
The blend wall might arrive as early as 2011-12, according to Geoff Cooper of the Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol advocacy group.

Compliance with renewable fuel standards after that will require rapid expansion of E85 or, failing that, approval of "midlevel" ethanol blends.

At present, FFVs, which safely can use E85, represent 3% of the US light-duty vehicle fleet. And E85 is available in only 1.5% of US retail outlets.

Problems with expanding the E85 market, Cooper said, include ethanol's mileage penalty relative to gasoline, infrastructure costs, unsettled specifications and standards, and a mismatch between where most FFVs are sold (California and Florida) and where E85 is most available (the Midwest farm belt).

After pointing out that the country now has about 2,000 E85 outlets and 7 million FFVs, Cooper cited US Department of Energy estimates that the US needs 60,000 E85 retail outlets and 90-110 million FFVs to achieve renewable fuel objectives.

Noting that US automakers have committed to raising their production of FFVs to half their new vehicle fleets within a few years, he said relaxation of the 10% cap still may be needed.

Without congressional action, that might happen in one of two ways: a finding by the Environmental Protection Agency that 11-12% ethanol blends resulted in no substantial degradation in fuel environmental performance or a Clean Air Act fuel waiver, also from EPA, raising the cap.

A group of ethanol producers called Growth Energy on Mar. 5 applied for a waiver for ethanol blends as high as 15%.

Cooper said test data exist showing that elevated ethanol can be used in concentrations above 10% without causing damage.

Different views
But speakers from the automobile and small-engine industries expressed sharply different views.

Coleman Jones, biofuels implementation manager at General Motors, said that long-term effects were not assessed when tests on ethanol blends above 10% showed no harm.

Tests conducted in Australia and by the US Department of Energy on elevated ethanol blends "are not encouraging," he said.

Midlevel blends of ethanol will not solve the near-term blend wall problem but might be important in the longer term, Jones argued. They won't bring enough ethanol into the market to meet the mandates when the material is needed, and they create "real dangers to existing hardware."

He said a group involving eight automakers and six oil companies proposes tests that will account for "durability" and not be "just a snap shot" of ethanol's effects and said the government should not mandate midlevel blends until results are available.

After listing engine parameters possibly at risk from increased ethanol blends, including items such as emissions performance and engine durability, he said, "Some people might suggest that the waiver is a bit premature."

Kris Kiser, executive vice-president of the Outdoor Power Equipment Institute, said 200-300 million pieces of equipment with small engines are in use in the US.

"Anything that's above 10% [ethanol] is a real challenge for the equipment," he said.

DOE tests of midlevel blends show elevation of exhaust gas temperature, risks to operators from unintentional clutch engagement, damage to engines, and operational problems.

He said the consumer product companies his group represents worry about safety, economic losses, warranty protection issues, and lawsuit exposure from a higher ethanol blend cap.

"Once an engine is damaged by ethanol, it's damaged," Kiser said.

Referring to "legacy products" not made to accommodate ethanol in concentrations exceeding 10%, he said, "Real lawyers are going to be on us once these things start dying."

Contact Bob Tippee at [email protected].